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Contents
- Abstract
- Method
- Sample
- Quality of Studies
- Coding Procedure
- Index of Predictive Accuracy
- Aggregation of Findings
- Generalizability of Findings
- Results
- How to Read the Tables
- Predictors of Sexual Offense Recidivism
- Predictors of Nonsexual Violent Recidivism
- Predictors of General (Any) Recidivism
- Comparison Across Domains
- Combined Risk Scales
- Influence of Recidivism Methods
- Discussion
Figures and Tables
Abstract
Evidence from 61 follow-up studies was examined to identify the factors most strongly related to recidivism among sexual offenders. On average, the sexual offense recidivism rate was low (13.4%; n = 23,393). There were, however, subgroups of offenders who recidivated at high rates. Sexual offense recidivism was best predicted by measures of sexual deviancy (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, prior sexual offenses) and, to a lesser extent, by general criminological factors (e.g., age, total prior offenses). Those offenders who failed to complete treatment were at higher risk for reoffending than those who completed treatment. The predictors of nonsexual violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism were similar to those predictors found among nonsexual criminals (e.g., prior violent offenses, age, juvenile deliquency). Our results suggest that applied risk assessments of sexual offenders should consider separately the offender's risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism.
Assessing chronicity is crucial for clients whose sexual behaviors have brought them into conflict with the law. Many exceptional criminal justice policies, such as postsentence detention (e.g., Anderson & Masters, 1992), lifetime community supervision, and community notification, target those sexual offenders likely to reoffend. Clinicians need to judge whether the client's behaviors are truly atypical of the individual (as the client would like us to believe) or whether the client merits a virtually permanent label as a sexual offender.
Sexual assault is a serious social problem, with high victimization rates among children (10% of boys and 20% of girls; Peters, Wyatt, & Finkelhor, 1986) and adult women (10–20%; Johnson & Sacco, 1995; Koss, 1993a). Given the large number of victims, it is not surprising that a significant portion (10–25%) of male community samples (e.g., university students, hospital staff) admit to sexual offending (Hanson & Scott, 1995; Lisak & Roth, 1988; Templeman & Stinnett, 1991).
One of the simplest...





