A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism.

Sexual offenses are among the crimes that invoke the most public concern. Community surveys have found that 5% to 20% of men admit to at least one instance of sexual aggression (Grotpellier & Elliott, 2002; Koss, 1987; Lisak & Miller, 2002), and official records indicate that 1% to 2% of the adult male population will eventually be convicted of a sexual crime (California Office of the Attorney General, 2004; P. Marshall, 1997). The observed sexual recidivism rate is typically 10% to 15% after 5 years (Hanson & Bussière, 1998), but for some offenders, the rate is much higher (Harris et al., 2003). Identifying the characteristics of persistent sexual offenders is important for understanding this highly troubling behavioral disorder, as well as for the practical task of administrating policies directed toward high risk sexual offenders (e.g., treatment, civil commitment, community notification).

There is now a general consensus that sexual recidivism is associated with at least two broad factors: (a) deviant sexual interests and (b) antisocial orientation/lifestyle instability (Hanson & Bussière, 1998; Quinsey, Lalumière, Rice, & Harris, 1995; Roberts, Doren, & Thornton, 2002). Deviant sexual interests refer to enduring attractions to sexual acts that are illegal (e.g., sex with children, rape) or highly unusual (e.g., fetishism, autoerotic asphyxia). Although all sexual offending is socially deviant, men who commit such...