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Analysis of public policy involves a range of actors and takes place in many forums with outcomes entering the public domain through means such as government statements, newspaper editorials, non-governmental briefings and academic articles. Yet despite the seemingly never-ending scrutiny and claims 'policy has been successful', authoritative closure on the issue of a policy's success or otherwise can be difficult to achieve. As Dye (2005 p. 332) argues:
Does the government generally know what it is doing? Generally speaking, no ... (E)ven if programs and policies are well organized, efficiently operated, adequately financed, and generally supported by major interest groups, we may still want to ask, So what? Do they work? Do these programs have any beneficial effects on society? Are the effects immediate or long range?... Unfortunately, governments have done very little to answer these more basic questions.
Of course, politics is frequently partisan, and policies framed as successful by some political actors may be framed as unsuccessful by others (Stone 2002; Fischer 2003).
Intuitively, we know that the ideal of complete success is rarely met. Some shortcomings or failings permeate virtually all policies. Some are small such as a five-year bridge building project that is a few months late or achievement of a 12 per cent budget cut instead of a target of 12.5 per cent. Others are considerable, such as a public health warning containing erroneous and potentially life-threatening information for some individuals, or train services aiming for 95 per cent punctuality but only achieving 50 per cent. The policy sciences lack an over-arching heuristic framework which would allow analysts to approach the multiple outcomes of policies in ways that move beyond the often crude, binary rhetoric of success and failure.
The purpose of this paper is to advance our understanding by building on recent work (e.g. Marsh and McConnell 2010a, 2010b; Bovens 2010) by clearly defining policy success and developing an analysis which unfolds from this definition to its polar opposite, failure, and various shades in between. It draws on a wide range of literature to illustrate why success and failure are bound inexorably with each other.
The word government is used throughout this article, whilst recognising that modern public sectors are characterised by multifaceted...