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Climatic Change (2011) 104:575597
DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9790-0
Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding
Mir Emad Mousavi Jennifer L. Irish Ashley E. Frey
Francisco Olivera Billy L. Edge
Received: 26 January 2009 / Accepted: 11 December 2009 / Published online: 12 January 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009
Abstract Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding, both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper, the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi, Texas, United States study region, mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will, on average, rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events, flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively.
Abbreviations
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeMSL Mean sea levelNOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SLR Sea level riseSRF Surge response functionSST Sea surface temperature
1 Introduction
Hurricanes and other tropical cyclones pose one of the most significant natural threats to coastal communities worldwide. High winds and surges, and, in inland regions, rainfall, can cause significant damage. Over the last 5 years, the USA has
M. E. Mousavi J. L. Irish (B) A. E. Frey F. Olivera B. L. Edge
Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-3136, USAe-mail: [email protected]
576 Climatic Change (2011) 104:575597
seen record numbers of hurricane landfalls and has experienced the devastating effects of some of the highest hurricane surges on record, including those of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Ike (e.g., Travis 2005; Irish et al. 2008a; Federal Emergency Management Agency 2008). Recent climatic research indicates that, in response to global warming, hurricanes may intensify and sea level rise (SLR) may accelerate (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] 2007). The coupled effect of these two phenomena will lead to increased hurricane flood risk at the coast,...