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This article reviews the literature on predictors of missionary success. Research articles are summarized in terms of their findings and critiques are offered. In general, promising work has been initiated on numerous conceptually sound topics. Unfortunately, research in the area of predicting missionary job success is relatively rare. The research that has been conducted has not been replicated and much of it is plagued with problems in methodology. Future directions for research from the literature are summarized and additional recommendations are offered.
Missionary and expatriate attrition is a costly affair in terms of finances, strained relations with host countries, and the emotional toll on the sojourner him or herself (Zeira & Banai, 1985). The cost of relocating an expatriate has been estimated to range from $60,000 (Dolainski, 1997) to $1,000,000 (Shannonhouse, 1996). Harrison, Chadwick, and Scales (1996) also noted that "unsuccessful" expatriates are marginally effective at best, indicating costs that extend beyond the purely financial. Anecdotal evidence suggests expatriate failure leads to frustration, disappointment, marital stress, and even demotion subsequent to repatriation (Swaak, 1995; Sypher, Shwom, Boje, Rosile, & Miller, 1998). Bochner (2006) reported estimates of the rate of expatriate failure at 20 to 50 percent. In spite of the aforementioned risks, multinational corporations continue to send significant numbers of employees overseas. There were an estimated 250,000 expatriates overseas as of 1997 (Dolainski, 1997).
Sending employees abroad will continue to be a priority within the Christian community as well, given the explicit directive within the biblical text to spread the gospel throughout the world. Unfortunately, the failure rates for missionaries are significant. The cost of a missionary returning from the field early is estimated at 2V2 times the yearly salary (Lindquist, 1982). Taylor (1997) put the attrition rate for missionaries at 5.1% per year, 71% of which was preventable. These numbers are unacceptably high, especially given the extremely tight budgets under which most mission agencies operate.
Clearly, the issue of expatriate/missionary attrition, and thereby selection, warrants further attention and research. Lindquist (1982) noted that when the Peace Corps implemented assessment and training programs, the rate of early return was reduced to .7%. Compared to the cost of attrition, work in the area of assessment seems well worth the investment.
This summary of the need...