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It is widely believed that projected changes in the age structure of the U.S. population will create serious fiscal pressures at the federal level. Irrespective of any reforms undertaken at the federal level, these demographic trends also will have a direct impact on the way state and local governments operate. A review of recent population projections to 2020 reveals a great deal of heterogeneity in demographic trends at lower levels of government. Population aging will accompany overall population growth in some localities, and shrinkage in others. It also will coincide with a broad range of changes in the proportion of children under 18. The authors consider several responses to these demographic developments in the realm of public management: First, they consider major fiscal implications, which may prompt a range of managerial responses pertaining to the scope and mix of public services and the design of public programs. Second, they discuss the effects of demographic change on the composition of the state and local government workforce. Finally, the authors revisit the alleged "exogeneity" of demographic forces and suggest new and fruitful areas for future research.
Is it true, as is often claimed, that "demography is destiny"? The phrase has been invoked to support arguments on a wide range of subjects, including the global balance of power (Huntington 1997), political realignment (Scammon and Wattenberg 1970), and explanations for rising crime rates (Figlio 1996). The phrase implies that demographic forces are inexorable causal factors. In the words of two demographers, "Demography is destiny precisely because once . . . demographic shifts and changes have occurred, the future is set" (Poston and Davis 2009, 173). This example suggests that demographic forces are sometimes viewed not only as causal, but as deterministic factors.
In the United States, population aging seems to have eclipsed population growth in its salience as a "population problem." In recent years, demographic change has played a large role in analyses of looming fiscal pressures at the federal level because of projected increases in claims on the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, as well as the federal- state Medicaid program. It is widely argued that growth in the absolute and relative size of the elderly population will undermine the financial solvency of such programs (Kinsella...