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Keywords
Chinese population, aging society, labor productivity, fertility rate, manufacturing wage
INTRODUCTION
As the most populous country on earth, China has drawn much attention both for the scale and the speed of its economic growth. Underlying its rapidly growing economy, however, are demographic changes that are posing new challenges for China's economy and society.
China's total fertility fell from around 6.11 per 1,000 females in 1950-1955 to 1.64 in 2005-2010. The decline, especially rapid during the period from 1975 to 1980, was mainly due to the formal introduction of the one-child policy in 1979. As a result, China's population growth has dropped significantly.
With average people becoming wealthier, Chinese people are clearly reaping the benefits of better nutrition and vastly improved health care. As a result, the average Chinese life span is expanding at a significant rate, with life expectancy growing to 72.7 years from 44.6 in 1955. Life expectancy is projected to be around 76 by 2030.
Rising life expectancies, however, will not be an unalloyed benefit. China now has to face the prospect of having too few children to support a rapidly aging population. China's Sixth National Census, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 28th 2011, shows that the proportion of the population aged between zero and fourteen fell to 16.6 percent in 2010, compared with 22.9 percent in 2000. At the same time, the number of people aged 60 and above grew to 13.3 percent from 10.3 percent in a decade.
Furthermore according to the United Nations, China's population aged 65 and over will rise from 8.9 percent of the total in 2010 to 9.5 percent in 2015, 16.5 percent in 2030, and 25.6 percent in 2050. The total number of elderly will increase to 332 million in 2050 from the current 110 million. On the other hand, the number of working-age Chinese will start to see negative growth after peaking in 2016, as predicted by the National Population and Family Planning Commission.
The falling number of young people suggests the Chinese population is graying at an alarming rate. Taken as a benchmark, Europe's pensionable population crossed the 10 percent line in 1970, and will reach 25 percent in 2040. The same will happen in China, only...