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Why John Major will have an uphill struggle to win Britain's general election on May 1st
WAITING for it, week after week, month after month, was as exciting as watching paint dry-and rather less productive. Even so, the general-election campaign that John Major finally set under way on March 17th promises to be remarkable. After more than six years as prime minister, Mr Major presides over a country in good economic health, with steady growth in living standards, falling unemployment, low inflation and peaceful industrial relations. Things are far from perfect, to be sure, but Britain faces no crises, either at home or abroad. Even Northern Ireland, for 25 years a bloody battleground, sits in a sullen sort of peace. According to electoral textbooks, in such circumstances only with a nuclear weapon could a challenger dislodge an incumbent. Yet Mr Major's party begins this campaign 26 percentage points behind Labour in the opinion polls. In effect, Mr Major is the challenger. Tony Blair is the incumbent
There is always a chance that this could change between now and when the polls open on May ist. A fair rule of politics is never to say never. Mr Major has opted for a six-week campaign (the minimum is three) doubtless in the hope not only that his man-next-door charm will work its magic on the electorate but also that, under the pressure of the race, Mr Blair and his party will self-destruct. Even so, as paths go, Mr Major's...