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STEP into London's clubland, into the Reform or the Garrick or the Beefsteak. Eavesdrop on Sir Humphrey and Justice Shallow; buttonhole the producer of Off the Record and the political editors of the Grauniad or the Moon; get your hotline, in short, to what the cognoscenti are saying about this general election and you will hear snatches of a thousand conversations: "Looks like Tony's going to win then?" "Be close though." "Don't believe those polls." "Gap's bound to narrow."
If you can't get to clubland, look at Reuter's latest survey of 20 pundits. Nineteen predict a Labour victory but only three reckon that Mr Blair will have an overall majority of more than 100. The average forecast majority is 59. Even Bob Worcester, the doyen of opinion pollsters, predicted a majority of only 81 in last week's Sunday Times, although his own polls suggest a majority three times that.
Seek fact rather than opinion and you get a different spin. The latest Economist poll of polls gives the following figures: Labour 55%, Tory 29%, Lib Dem io%, which equates to a Labour overall majority of 293. And these polls, don't forget, massage the Labour lead down to compensate for their past tendency to exaggerate it.
As for the theory that the race is bound to tighten, look at the events of the past week. The Tories have had one ex-minister, Tim Smith, confess to taking bigger bribes than...