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A breakthrough remains possible, but it will take time
U
KRAINE’S COUNTER-OFFENSIVE will soon enter its eighth week. It has already liberated more territory than Russia captured during a months-long winter offensive, which took the eastern town of Bakhmut and little else. The majority of Ukraine’s Western-equipped brigades remain intact and uncommitted. But progress has been slower and harder than expected, dashing hopes of an early breakthrough. The offensive has devolved into a protracted battle of attrition, which seems likely to stretch into the autumn.Ukraine launched its first big attacks in the south on June 4th around Orikhiv in Zaporizhia province and around Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk province, along with a separate push around Bakhmut (see map). Ukraine’s allies had spent months conducting wargames and simulations to predict how an assault might unfold. They were cautiously optimistic. They thought there was an outside chance of an early breakthrough, resulting in rapid progress of the sort that Ukraine had achieved in Kharkiv province last year. But such an outcome depended both on Ukraine executing its mission flawlessly and on Russia crumbling.
In fact neither of those things has happened. Ukraine ran into trouble right away. Its new Western-equipped brigades became bogged down, sometimes in minefields, and were targeted by Russian artillery, anti-tank missiles, attack helicopters and loitering munitions. Ukraine responded by changing tactics. It is now holding back armour and sending in smaller units of dismounted infantry, often no more than 20 soldiers, to proceed slowly and haltingly. The result is a grinding slog.
“The various wargames that were done ahead of time have predicted certain levels of advance,” conceded General Mark Milley, America’s top officer, on July 18th. “And that has slowed down.” Ukraine says it has liberated 12 square kilometres of territory in the south in the week leading to July 24th, and 227 square kilometres in total since the start of the offensive. That is around 0.3% of the territory gained by Russia since the invasion last year.
In part, the slow progress reflects the scale of Ukraine’s task. Russian defences are 30km deep in places, bristling with earthworks and tank traps and spattered with mines. Most NATO armies would struggle to...