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Abstract
This study addresses the critical research gap in understanding regional drought dynamics in West Africa (WA) using advanced multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) techniques, revealing critical insights into the complex interplay between large-scale climate indices and regional drought patterns. Utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), we examined drought characteristics across WA from 1950 to 2018. Our analysis revealed significant drying trends across all seasons, with the Arid zone experiencing the most severe and prolonged drought (158 months) from August 1981 to September 1994, affecting 79.77% of the area. The entire WA region faced its most extensive drought during this period, impacting over 60% of the study area. MWC analysis demonstrated enhanced drought predictability when combining climate indices, particularly the Southern Oscillation Index with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, yielding high Average Wavelet Coherence values of 0.52 (SPEI) and 0.53 (scPDSI), with substantial Percentage Area of Significant Coherence of 40.19% and 43.68%, respectively. These findings highlight the crucial role of oceanic-atmospheric interactions in modulating drought conditions across WA. Our results provide valuable insights for improving drought forecasting and management strategies in the region, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches that consider multiple climate indices and their combined effects on drought dynamics.
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Details
1 Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
2 Department of Engineering Mechanics and Energy, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
3 Nagqu Plateau Climate and Environment Observation and Research Station of Tibet Autonomous Region, Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
4 Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, CA, USA
5 College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China