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Abstract
Autocratic regimes are marked with tighter media control than democratic ones. In contexts where these autocratic regimes rule, where media access is already uneven, how does a significant change in communication like the Internet affect key political players? I argue that the Internet has altered these political players’ ability to shape policy reforms.
Focusing on the case of Saudi Arabia, I develop my argument in two parts. First, I demonstrate that while the Internet has provided all political players with equal media access, it has given them an unequal communication advantage. For one, the Internet undermined the media control of the historically media-privileged Saudi conservatives because it eclipsed the cassette tape – a powerful communication medium that conservatives had exclusively controlled for over thirty years. For another, the Internet has significantly enhanced the media leverage of the historically media-denied social liberals, reformists, and political activists because it endowed them with media platforms they previously lacked.
Second, I show that these distinct communication effects of the Internet have a profound political implication: The Internet has reconfigured Saudi political players’ ability to influence political decision-making in the Kingdom. On the one hand, the Internet enhanced the ability of social liberals, reformists, and political activists to shape policy reform. On the other hand, the Internet undermined the ability of conservatives to shape decision-making. Three causal mechanisms link the Internet as an impetus to political players’ influence on policy reforms as an outcome: 1) political players transformed capacity to popularize agenda through the media, 2) public opinion shifts and 3) public pressure on the state.
I demonstrate my argument by drawing on large-scale original data, including ownership and reach of 46 newspapers, 37 political petitions, 4206 royal decrees, 4,750,000 tweets, 67,250 cassette-taped lectures, and 135 YouTube videos. I analyze these data using a range of research methods: machine-learning and text-as-data, descriptive analysis, and historical process tracing.
In all, my research shows how power operates on the ideational level through the media sphere to popularize the policy preferences of some political contestants over others. Moreover, by studying the Internet in relation to earlier media like the cassette tape, I demonstrate that media effects should be viewed in a broader historical context because each medium affects and is affected by other mediums. Additionally, contrary to most existing research, my findings suggest that public opinion plays an important role even in autocratic contexts.
Finally, my dissertation provides a systematic and multifaceted analysis of elite-society relations in an autocratic system that is often understood very superficially. In so doing, it adds to our knowledge of the domestic politics of key political players in the Middle East and globally. Though focused on the Saudi case, my dissertation generates lessons applicable to other countries, such as Russia and China, where concerns about political participation, free expression, and state responsiveness persist.
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