Metoda prognozowania deformacji powierzchni terenu w rejonie zloz gazu i ropy naftowej wraz z analiza zagrozen infrastruktury technicznej

Abstract

Hydrocarbon production under certain geological conditions of these deposits can cause surface subsidence and deformation of the terrain surface. Such deformations appear as subsidence troughs of considerable range and the magnitude of the subsidence depending on the total thickness of the reservoir, compaction properties of reservoir and on the number of other factors. In the past there have been widely recognized magnitudes of the subsidence up to 9 meters. The stress zones in the subsidence trough may affect the buildings and surface structures. However there have been well known some cases of destroyed boreholes or pipelinesbelonging to thegas or oil mine.Therefore there is a requirement to analyze the possibility of occurrence unfavorable phenomenon on the ground surface, to monitor surface deformations during production and to protect surface infrastructure located in the range of mining influences.

In the paper the issue of surface subsidence caused by hydrocarbon production has been presented. The cause - effect relationship between the compaction of thereservoir rock and the subsidence of surface area has been assumed. The predictionmodel base on the influence functionand on the superposition of elementary influences.

For the purpose of building damage protection a newmodel of risk assessment has been developed. Thismodel base on the elements of fuzzy logicallows to incorporate in the analysis the quantitative and qualitative factors that contribute to the risk of building damage. Use of the fuzzy logic made it possible to obtain onevalue which clearlydiscriminate the risk of buildings damage. However, risk analyzes of damage to the large number of buildings has been required additional tools. The spatial analysishas been made by using GIS. The subjects of the paperhave been illustrated with a practical example. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]