Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Forestland dynamics can affect the ecological security of a country and even the global environment, and therefore it is of great practical significance to understand the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of forestland. Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area, this study first explored the driving mechanism of the natural environment and social economy on deforestation and afforestation using a simultaneous equation model. The results indicate that population size, topographic and geomorphologic factors, climate, and location play leading roles in influencing forestland density fluctuations. Specifically, the population size, economic development level, gross value of forestry production, climate conditions, and government policies are key influencing factors of afforestation. Deforestation is mainly influenced by agricultural population, non-agricultural economy, forestry production, forestry density, location, transportation, and climate. In addition, this study simulated the spatial distribution of land use and analyzed the spatial characteristics and variation trends of forestland area and quality under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios from 2010 to 2030 using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. The results indicate that forestland declines under the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM) climate scenario. The environment tends to be heavily damaged under this kind of scenarios, and measures should be taken in order to protect the environment. Although the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact (MESSAGE) scenario is to some extent better than the AIM scenario, destruction of the environment will still occur, and it is necessary to restrain deforestation and convert shrub land into forestland or garden land. These results can provide significant information for environmental protection, forest resource exploitation, and utilization in the areas experiencing deforestation and afforestation.