A Quantitative Study of the Relationship Between Performance Indicators and Ninth Grade Placement

Abstract

This study is an in-depth look at the role of grades and standardized test scores in predicting future student success in the classroom, focusing on the transition from middle school to high school. It seeks to identify how practicing high school administrators can utilize these two sets of predictor data in the decision of placing students into the high school curriculum at the freshman level. A review of the literature examines research on grades to students, standardized testing practices, success at the freshman level of high school, and the connection between high school and college level placement.

Middle school grades in a student’s core subject area classes (math, English, science and social science) were contrasted with standardized MAP test scores administered in the eighth grade year in their ability to predict ninth grade core subject area classroom performance, in order to identify which is a better predictor of future performance.

The study takes place in a high school district in Illinois. It looks specifically at the district’s Class of 2018 and its 223 students. In the final analysis, the study found a positive correlational relationship between both middle school grades and standardized test scores and ninth grade grades. Further analysis found that, in every research question studied, middle school grades proved to be the stronger predictor of ninth grade grades. In addition, this study found middle school grades to be far stronger of a predictor suggesting that the primary determinate of placement decisions for the ninth grade can be found in the classroom track record of incoming ninth graders and not standardized test scores.