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Abstract
Visitation to the major nature-based national parks has been declining. This paper specifies an econometric model that estimates the relative impact of consumer incomes, travel costs, entry fees and other factors on per capita attendance from 1993 to 2010. Results suggest that entrance fees have had a statistically significant but small impact on per capita attendance. Increasing fuel prices (travel costs) relative to income has had a more significant effect suggesting that park policies reducing the cost of attendance may be desirable.
Keywords: national parks; demand analysis; attendance; entrance fees
Introduction
National park visitation is in flux. While recreational visits to the system as a whole have remained fairly stable, visitation to the 58 major nature-based national parks-the "crown jewels" such as Yellowstone, Yosemite, and the Grand Canyon-actually peaked in 1997 at 69.4 million visits, and has since declined nearly 7% to 64.6 million visits in 2010 (Table 1). Per capita visitation (the visitation "rate") has declined even more dramatically, off about 19% over the same period. Two frequently cited reasons for these declines are our new fascination with video ("videophilia" [Pergams & Zaradic 2006, 2008]) and changing childhood socialization that includes less nature play (Louv 2005). Yet economic factors also may be at work. The growing wealth of the middle class was a prime factor that drove the increasing demand for park visitation during the 1950 s and 60's. Today, however, middle class incomes have stagnated or declined, while trip costs have grown substantially. The direct price of visiting also has increased with the implementation of user fee programs begun in 1997 (the year of peak visitation), under the Recreation Fee Demonstration Program.
Consequently, our objective in this paper is to specify an econometric model that estimates the relative impact of entrance fees, fuel prices, income and other factors on per capita naturebased national park attendance between 1993 and 2010. We begin with a brief historical overview of national park visitation and policy before developing our economic model. The results suggest that entrance fees have had a statistically significant, but small, impact on nature based national park visitation per capita over the 1993-2010 period. Increasing fuel price (and associ- ated travel costs) relative to income has had a more significant effect. We...