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About the Authors:
Peter Winskill
Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Methodology, Project administration, Validation, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing
* E-mail: [email protected]
Affiliation: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3001-4959
Hannah C. Slater
Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Validation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing
Affiliation: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Jamie T. Griffin
Roles Formal analysis, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing - review & editing
Affiliation: School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom
Azra C. Ghani
Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing - review & editing
Affiliation: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Patrick G. T. Walker
Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing
Affiliation: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomAbstract
Background
Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur.
Methods and findings
We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million) malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million) lives since 2005. If funding is maintained,...