Lupus nephritis pathology prediction with clinical indices

Abstract

Effective treatment of lupus nephritis and assessment of patient prognosis depend on accurate pathological classification and careful use of acute and chronic pathological indices. Renal biopsy can provide most reliable predicting power. However, clinicians still need auxiliary tools under certain circumstances. Comprehensive statistical analysis of clinical indices may be an effective support and supplementation for biopsy. In this study, 173 patients with lupus nephritis were classified based on histology and scored on acute and chronic indices. These results were compared against machine learning predictions involving multilinear regression and random forest analysis. For three class random forest analysis, total classification accuracy was 51.3% (class II 53.7%, class III&IV 56.2%, class V 40.1%). For two class random forest analysis, class II accuracy reached 56.2%; class III&IV 63.7%; class V 61%. Additionally, machine learning selected out corresponding important variables for each class prediction. Multiple linear regression predicted the index of chronic pathology (CI) (Q² = 0.746, R² = 0.771) and the acute index (AI) (Q² = 0.516, R² = 0.576), and each variable’s importance was calculated in AI and CI models. Evaluation of lupus nephritis by machine learning showed potential for assessment of lupus nephritis.