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Abstract
Today East Asia harbors many “relict” plant species whose ranges were much larger during the Paleogene-Neogene and earlier. The ecological and climatic conditions suitable for these relict species have not been identified. Here, we map the abundance and distribution patterns of relict species, showing high abundance in the humid subtropical/warm-temperate forest regions. We further use Ecological Niche Modeling to show that these patterns align with maps of climate refugia, and we predict species’ chances of persistence given the future climatic changes expected for East Asia. By 2070, potentially suitable areas with high richness of relict species will decrease, although the areas as a whole will probably expand. We identify areas in southwestern China and northern Vietnam as long-term climatically stable refugia likely to preserve ancient lineages, highlighting areas that could be prioritized for conservation of such species.
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1 Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming, China
2 Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Ibaraki-ken, Japan
3 Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
4 Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB, CSIC-ICUB), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
5 Key Laboratory of Three Gorges Reservoir Region’s Eco-Environment, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China
6 The Nature Conservancy Society of Japan, Tokyo, Japan
7 Southern Institute of Ecology, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
8 Northeastern Research Institute of Petrified Wood and Mineral Resources, Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand
9 Botanical Garden-Institute FEB RAS, Vladivostok, Russia
10 Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Ramon, CA, USA; The Academy of Natural Science, Philadelphia, PA, USA
11 Plant Ecology & Biodiversity, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
12 Tall Timbers Research Station and Land Conservancy, Tallahassee, FL, USA
13 Interdisciplinary Institute of environmental, Social and Human Studies, University of Flensburg, Flensburg, Germany
14 Institute of Botany, Yunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan, China
15 Research Institute of Resource Insects, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Kunming, China
16 Kunming Institute of Forestry Exploration and Design, The State Forestry Administration of China, Kunming, China
17 Centre for Mountain Ecosystem Studies, Kunming Institute of Botany-CAS, Kunming, China
18 CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
19 Kunming Agrometeorological Station of Yunnan Province, Kunming, China
20 Guizhou University of Engineering Science, Bijie, China
21 Tokyo University of Information Sciences, Chiba, Japan
22 College of Life Sciences, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, China
23 Chongqing Three Gorges Medical College, Chongqing, China
24 School of Geography, Southwest China Forestry University, Kunming, China
25 School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
26 Kunming University of Science and Technology, Chenggong, China
27 Yunnan Academy of Forestry, Kunming, China
28 Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ailaoshan Station for Subtropical Forest Ecosystem Studies, National Forest Ecosystem Research Station at Ailaoshan, Kunming, Yunnan, China