Tourism foreign direct investment led tourism gross value added: a co-integration and causality analysis of Croatian tourism

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the causal relationship between foreign direct investment in tourism and tourism gross value added in Croatia. The study employed econometric techniques, such as the unit root test, Johansen co-integration, and the Granger causality test, in a vector error correction model (V.E.C. model), and the Toda–Yamamoto causality test in a vector autoregressive model (V.A.R. model), using quarterly time-series data from 2000(1) to 2012(4). The results confirm the existence of a stable co-integrated relationship between variables in the long term. A short-term relationship was also proved between foreign direct investment in tourism and gross value added, using the Toda–Yamamoto causality test. By including control variables, the two-way causality between the subject variables was proven using the Granger causality test.