Impacts of different radiation schemes on the prediction of solar radiation and photovoltaic power

Abstract

The output power of a photovoltaic system largely depends on the amount of solar radiation that can be received by the photovoltaic panel, and the solar radiation energy reaching the ground is affected by the radiation transmission process. However, in engineering practice, numerical simulation prediction schemes tend to adopt a kind of radiation scheme, and the prediction of solar radiation and photovoltaic power cannot always meet the prediction accuracy. In this paper, NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data are used as the initial field, and a variety of radiation parameterization schemes are used to produce simulations for the Xinjiang area. Through analysis of examples, it is found that the simulation results differ greatly depending on the radiation parameterization scheme employed, with the maximum absolute error of the total radiation and the predicted power being 106.67 W m⁻² and 3.5 MW, respectively. Meanwhile, the mean absolute percentage error of the total radiation ranges from 8.6% to 17.3%, and that of the predicted power from 11.3% to 20.2%. Having analyzed the simulation results of the different radiation parameterization schemes, we conclude that the RRTM/Dudhia and CAM (Community Atmospheric Model) schemes are the most appropriate when under clear-weather conditions.