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1. Introduction
In this paper, the cash flow of an insurance company is described by the following spectrally negative Lévy process:
In insurance risk theory, one object of interest is the ruin time
Condition 1.
The premium rate
In this paper, we use the Gerber-Shiu expected discounted penalty function to discuss the ruin problems. This function is defined by
In insurance risk theory, the Gerber-Shiu function introduced by Gerber and Shiu [1] is a powerful tool for solving ruin problems. It should be emphasized that most of the existing literatures mainly pursue explicit formulae of Gerber-Shiu functions under various models. For example, Gerber and Shiu [1] studied the classical risk model; Li and Garrido [2, 3] discussed the Sparre Andersen risk models. In risk theory, the Lévy process is often used to model the surplus process of an insurance company, and a large number of results to Gerber-Shiu function have been made by researchers. Garrido and Morales [4] used Laplace transform to investigate the classical Gerber-Shiu function. Biffis and Morales [5] generalized the Gerber-Shiu function to path-dependent penalties. Chau et al. [6] used the Fourier-cosine method to evaluate the Gerber-Shiu function. For more studies on Gerber-Shiu function, the interested readers are referred to Yin and Wang [7, 8], Asmussen and Albrecher [9], Chi [10], Wang et al. [11], Chi and Lin [12], Zhao and Yin [13, 14], Shen et al. [15], Yu [16–18], Yin and Yuen [19, 20], Zhao and Yao [21], Zheng et al. [22], Huang et al. [23], Li et al. [24], Zhang et al. [25], Yu et al. [26], Zeng et al. [27, 28], Li et al. [29], and Dong et al. [30].
Contributing to Gerber-Shiu function mentioned above, it is commonly assumed that the probabilistic law of the surplus process is known, so that some analytic formulae can be derived. However, from the practical point of view, the insurance company does not know the probabilistic law, instead the surplus data and claim sizes data are often known. Hence, it is of importance to develop some methods for estimating the Gerber-Shiu type risk measures from the past data.
Over the past decade, the importance of statistical estimation of Gerber-Shiu function has advanced rapidly. As a special type of Gerber-Shiu functions, the ruin probability is estimated by Mnatsakanov et al. [31], Masiello [32], and Zhang et al. [33] under the classical compound Poisson risk model. Further, Zhang [34] and Yang et al. [35] estimated the finite ruin probability by double Fourier transform. For the general Gerber-Shiu function, Shimizu [36] estimated it by Laplace inversion in the compound Poisson insurance risk model. Zhang [37, 38] proposed an estimator by Fourier-sinc and Fourier-cosine series expansion. Zhang and Su [39, 40] and Su et al. [41] proposed a more efficient estimator by Laguerre series expansion method. In addition, the estimation of ruin probability and Gerber-Shiu function in the Lévy risk model has also attracted the attention of scholars. For example, Shimizu [42] estimated the Gerber-Shiu function in a general spectrally negative Lévy process. Zhang and Yang [43, 44] estimated the ruin probability in a pure jump Lévy risk model. Shimizu and Zhang [45] estimated the Gerber-Shiu function in the pure jump Lévy risk model. Moreover, the study is a useful tool not only for the estimation of ruin probability by invasive exotic species on habitat and natural systems; see Wang and Yin [46], Yuen and Yin [47], Dong and Yin [48], Yin et al. [49], Wang et al. [50], Zhao et al. [51], Pavone et al. [52], Zhou et al. [53], Costa and Pavone [54, 55], and Yin [56], but also for explaining the dynamics of the disappearance of the plants of the past and changing of biodiversity and wavelet analysis, see Costa et al. [57], Pulvirenti et al. [58, 59], Lemarié and Meyer [60], and Daubechies [61].
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we provide some known results on Gerber-Shiu function, which are useful for constructing the estimator. In Section 3, we give an estimator by the Laguerre series expansion method, where both the surplus data and the aggregate claims data are used. Some consistent properties of the estimator are investigated in Section 4. Finally, in Section 5, we provide numerical examples to illustrate the efficiency of the method.
2. Preliminaries on Gerber-Shiu Functions
2.1. The Laguerre Basis
In this paper, we use
For the Laguerre functions, they are defined by
It is known that
The following properties of Laguerre functions are useful, which can be found in Abrumowitz and Stegun [62].
(1)
(2)
2.2. Review on Gerber-Shiu Function
In this subsection, we present some necessary results on the Gerber-Shiu function, which are useful for constructing the estimator. First, we consider the root of the following equation (in s):
By Corollary 4.1 in Biffis and Morales [5] we have
For purpose of employing the Laguerre series expansion, we suppose the following condition.
Condition 2.
The functions
Under Condition 2, we have the following Laguerre series expansion formulae:
Substituting the above five expressions into (20) and (21) and using a similar method as in Zhang and Su [39], we can obtain for
The above linear systems can further be rewritten in matrix form as follows:
3. Estimating the Gerber-Shiu Function
Suppose that we can observe the surplus process
In this paper, the observation is based on high frequency in a long term, which means that the following condition holds true.
Condition 3.
The sampling interval satisfies
We shall use the notation
Condition 4 (
Note that Condition 4
The following two conditions are also useful for studying the consistent properties.
Condition 5.
The L
Condition 6.
For some
Now we study how to estimate the Gerber-Shiu function. First, we estimate
For the L
Lemma 7.
Suppose that Conditions 1, 2, and 4(2) hold true. Then for
Proof.
This can be proved using the same arguments as in Shimizu [42].
Let us consider how to estimate
Note that
For the vectors
4. Consistent Properties
In this section, we investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators as
First, we consider the biases. To this end, we introduce the Sobolev-Laguerre space (Bongioanni and Torrea [64]), which is defined by
Next, we discuss the statistical errors. For a vector
Now using the same arguments as in deriving (61) in Zhang and Su [39], we have
To derive upper bounds for the right hand sides of (60) and (61), we still need some lemmas.
Lemma 8.
Suppose that Condition 1 holds true. Then for all
Proof.
Note that the infinite dimensional lower triangular Toeplitz matrix
Lemma 9.
Under Condition 2, for each
Proof.
The above results hold true since
Lemma 10.
Suppose that Conditions 1, 3, and 4(2) hold true. Then for each
Proof.
First, we have
Lemma 11.
Suppose that Conditions 1, 3, 4
Proof.
First, we have
For
For
For
For
Lemma 12.
Suppose that Conditions 1, 3, 4(2), and 5 hold true. Then we have
Proof.
By the definitions of
For each
Now we use Theorem B.1 in Zhang and Su [39] to prove this result. First, note that
The main results of this section are given below.
Theorem 13.
Suppose that Conditions 1, 2, 3, 4
Proof.
The above results follow from formulae (58), (60), and (61) and Lemmas 9–12.
5. Simulation Studies
In this section, we present some numerical examples to show the effectiveness of our estimator when the sample size is finite. We suppose that the risk model is a compound Poisson process perturbed by a diffusion, where we set the premium rate
We shall estimate the ruin probability and the Laplace transform of ruin time, where the penalty function
In the sequel, we shall set
To measure the performance of the estimate, we compute the integrated mean-square error (IMSE) based on 300 experiments, which are computed by
Table 1
IMSEs × 100.
|
Ruin probability | Laplace transform of ruin time | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
||
Exponential | (1000,0.02) | 0.57 | 6.24 | 0.20 | 6.14 |
(2500,0.01) | 0.09 | 2.88 | 0.05 | 1.27 | |
(5000,0.01) | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.18 | |
|
|||||
Erlang(2,2) | (1000,0.02) | 0.22 | 1.03 | 0.36 | 2.68 |
(2500,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 1.79 | |
(5000,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
Acknowledgments
This research is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11301303 and 11501325), the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 15BJY007), the Taishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province (Grant No. tsqn20161041), the Humanities and Social Sciences Project of the Ministry Education of China (Grant Nos. 16YJC630070 and 19YJA910002), the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (Grant No. ZR2018MG002), the Fostering Project of Dominant Discipline and Talent Team of Shandong Province Higher Education Institutions (Grant No. 1716009), Risk Management and Insurance Research Team of Shandong University of Finance and Economics, the 1251 Talent Cultivation Project of Shandong Jiaotong University, Shandong Jiaotong University ‘Climbing’ Research Innovation Team Program, and Collaborative Innovation Center Project of the Transformation of New and Old Kinetic Energy and Government Financial Allocation.
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Abstract
This paper studies the statistical estimation of the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty functions in a general spectrally negative Lévy risk model. Suppose that the claims process and the surplus process can be observed at a sequence of discrete time points. Using the observed data, the Gerber-Shiu functions are estimated by the Laguerre series expansion method. Consistent properties are studied under the large sample setting, and simulation results are also presented when the sample size is finite.
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Details


1 School of Science, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan, Shandong 250357, China
2 School of Insurance, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, Shandong 250014, China
3 College of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing University, Chongqing 401331, China
4 School of Computer Science & Technology, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, Shandong 250014, China