Demand Modelling By Combining Disaggregate And Aggregate Data: An Application To A Displacement Scenario For The Mount Vesuvius Area

Abstract

The event of an eruption of Mount Vesuvius (dormant since 1945) represents an emergency involving approx. 700,000 persons. In order to face the risks of its catastrophical awakening, Region Campania and the University of Naples have cofinanced a study aiming at simulating the impacts that a possible displacement of approx. 350,000 residents may produce both on the territory and the transport system. To this purpose, a model system has been drawn up to simulate the demand of mobility according to different displacement scenarios in terms of housing and business activities as well as in relation to a different hypothesis of reorganization of the regional public transport system. The following paper introduces a disaggregate/aggregate mixed calibration methodology, where different typologies of data are put together thus obtaining demand models which result \“inexpensive” and efficacious on simulating the phenomenon.