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PARTICIPANTS I Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; ICIMS=Holmdel, New Jersey; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; S&P = Standard & Poor's, New York, New York; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.
The U.S. economy is expected to remain on a positive growth trajectory to achieve the longest recovery cycle in history, surpassing the 120-month expansion of 19912001. The slow but steady economic growth has produced a lasting imprint in the psyche of both employers and workers that, in part, explains tamed wage and price inflation. The unemployment rate stands at 3.8 percent in February, a rate last seen in 1966. The broader measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged and part-time workers stands at 7.3 percent in February, a sharp drop from 8.1 in January. The lowest U6 unemployment rate was in October 2000 at 6.8 percent. Broken down by ethnicity, the unemployment rate of Hispanics, African-Americans, and whites stand at 4.3, 7.0, and 3.3 percent respectively, with the largest gain among Hispanics and a slight retreat for African-Americans. The labor force participation rate has reversed the downward trend in April 2015 and stands at 63.2 percent but far short of the 67.3 percent rate in February 2000. A sustained higher labor force participation will have both material and psychological dividends in the long-run. Employment growth of 20,000 in February was far short of the anticipated 180,000 the worst since September 2017. However, the survey of firms does not indicate a drop in need for workers. One piece of good news is that real wages are finally rising. Hourly compensation rose 3.4 percent in February while the Consumer Price Index increased modestly by 1.5 percent, resulting in 1.9 percent real wage growth. A tight labor market and rising hourly earnings are contributing to a higher labor turnover and absenteeism, a sign of worker confidence. The average weekly hours worked...