Abstract

Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a 1.63-fold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.

Details

Title
Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa
Author
Redding, David W 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Atkinson, Peter M 2 ; Cunningham, Andrew A 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Gianni Lo Iacono 4   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Moses, Lina M 5   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Wood, James L N 6   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Jones, Kate E 7   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

1  Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK 
2  Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, UK 
3  Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, UK 
4  School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK 
5  Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA 
6  Department of Veterinary Medicine, Disease Dynamics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK 
7  Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK; Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, UK 
Pages
1-11
Publication year
2019
Publication date
Oct 2019
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
e-ISSN
20411723
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6
ProQuest document ID
2305802772
Copyright
© 2019. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.