Abstract

Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to 'prevent extinctions of known threatened species'. To measure its success, we used a Delphi expert elicitation method to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993 - 2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010 - 2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation prevented 21-32 bird and 7-16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9-18 bird and 2-7 mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened, and may still become extinct in the near future. Nonetheless, given that ten bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9-4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.

Footnotes

* https://github.com/rbolam/Prevented_bird_and_mammal_extinctions

Details

Title
How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented?
Author
Bolam, Friederike C; Mair, Louise; Angelico, Marco; Brooks, Thomas M; Burgman, Mark; Hermes, Claudia; Hoffmann, Michael; Martin, Rob W; Mcgowan, Philip Jk; Rodrigues, Ana Sl; Rondinini, Carlo; Wheatley, Hannah; Bedolla-Guzman, Yuliana; Calzada, Javier; Child, Matthew F; Cranswick, Peter A; Dickman, Christopher R; Fessl, Birgit; Fisher, Diana O; Garnett, Stephen T; Groombridge, Jim J; Johnson, Christopher N; Kennerley, Rosalind J; King, Sarah Rb; Lamoreux, John F; Lees, Alexander C; Lens, Luc; Mahood, Simon P; Mallon, David P; Meijaard, Erik; Mendez-Sanchez, Federico; Alexandre Reis Percequillo; Regan, Tracey J; Luis Miguel Renjifo; Rivers, Malin C; Roach, Nicolette S; Roxburgh, Lizanne; Safford, Roger J; Salaman, Paul; Squires, Tom; Vazquez-Dominguez, Ella; Visconti, Piero; Westrip, James Rs; Woinarsky, John Cz; Young, Richard P; Butchart, Stuart Hm
University/institution
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Section
New Results
Publication year
2020
Publication date
Feb 12, 2020
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
ISSN
2692-8205
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.11.943902
ProQuest document ID
2353842686
Copyright
© 2020. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ (“the License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.