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© 2020. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

The seasonal and regional variations of cloud fractions are compared across two generations of global climate model ensembles, specifically, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project‐5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6, through the historical period in terms of skills and multimodel agreement. We find a wider spread of historical cloud fraction changes in the CMIP6 than was simulated by the CMIP5. The global mean cloud fractions of CMIP6 increased by about 4.5% from the CMIP5, which attributed to greater changes in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. The CMIP6 cloud fractions in recent years are validated with the CALIPSO_CLOUSAT observations to understand the cloud fraction uncertainties in CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 ensemble mean of cloud fractions compares well with the observations with a mean difference of 0.5% in lower altitudes. The CMIP6 cloud fractions are higher than the observations at higher latitudes in both hemispheres in the upper troposphere, and the biases vary from one model to another. The spatial difference between the ensemble and observations is further revealed over the tropics: where the model displays a 3% higher bias. In addition, we observed a significant trend occuring in the northern hemisphere since the mid‐20th century using calculations of cloud fraction trends based on the robust regression technique. Finally, we reduce the differences between the model and observations by applying a simple regression technique. The results exemplify that the model and modified observations compare well, with the root mean square value decreased by nearly 28%, and the correlation increased significantly.

Details

Title
Assessment of CMIP6 Cloud Fraction and Comparison with Satellite Observations
Author
Vignesh, P Preetham 1 ; Jiang, Jonathan H 2 ; Kishore, P 3 ; Su, Hui 2 ; Smay, Timothy 1 ; Brighton, Nicholas 1 ; Velicogna, Isabella 4 

 Grade 12, University High School, Irvine, CA, USA 
 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA 
 Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA 
 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA 
Section
Research Articles
Publication year
2020
Publication date
Feb 2020
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
e-ISSN
2333-5084
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2362991437
Copyright
© 2020. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.