Saving less in China facilitates global CO2 mitigation

Abstract

Transforming China’s economic growth pattern from investment-driven to consumption-driven can significantly change global CO₂ emissions. This study is the first to analyse the impacts of changes in China’s saving rates on global CO₂ emissions both theoretically and empirically. Here, we show that the increase in the saving rates of Chinese regions has led to increments of global industrial CO₂ emissions by 189 million tonnes (Mt) during 2007–2012. A 15-percentage-point decrease in the saving rate of China can lower global CO₂ emissions by 186 Mt, or 0.7% of global industrial CO₂ emissions. Greener consumption in China can lead to a further 14% reduction in global industrial CO₂ emissions. In particular, decreasing the saving rate of Shandong has the most massive potential for global CO₂ reductions, while that of Inner Mongolia has adverse effects. Removing economic frictions to allow the production system to fit China’s increased consumption can facilitate global CO₂ mitigation.

The partial effects of saving rate changes on CO₂ emissions remain unclear. Here the authors found that the increase in saving rates of China has led to increments of global industrial CO₂ emissions by 189 million tonnes (Mt) during 2007-2012, while global CO₂ emissions would be reduced by 186 Mt if the saving rates of China decreased by 15 percentage points.