Evaluation of the E-PRE-DELIRIC prediction model for ICU delirium: a retrospective validation in a UK general ICU

Abstract

The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (Fig. 1b) and the precision-recall (PR) curve (Fig. 1c), showing precision (positive predictive value (PPV)) against recall (sensitivity), both indicate moderate-to-poor discriminative performance. Refitting the E-PRE-DELIRIC logistic regression model to our data hardly improved discrimination: AUROC was 0.648 (95% CI 0.622–0.673) and AUPRC was 0.566. SEE PDF] The calibration plot, of predicted risk against observed delirium rate, shows the risk of delirium is considerably underestimated, especially in patients with predicted risk of delirium less than 0.5 (Fig. 1d).