GIS-based integrated analysis for water resources vulnerability: A case study in the north-west of Italy

Abstract

This case study is an application of the integrated climatic modelling framework (GEO-CWB) in the metropolitan area of torino (north Italy) for the projected period of 2080. the model was developed and validated at trinity college of dublin and uses Geographical Information System (GIS) as the climate change downscaling environment. the main goal of this research is to investigate the impacts of climate and land-use changes on the water resources vulnerability using GEO-CWB model with a wide range of input parameters and grids, including seasonal climate variables and changes, land use/land cover, seasonal parameters and future changes, seasonal groundwater depth, soil properties, topography and slope. An intense data collection activity was carried out for the year 2015, using all the possible sources available; additionally, potential evapotranspiration, as input data, was calculated using the method of blaney–criddle and modelled in GIS platform. In order to parametrize the hydrological response of the metropolitan area of torino to the changes in climate and land use, GEO-CWB has a number of simulation stages (WBt) as follows: wbt stage (1) – dynamical water balance (DWB), WBt stage (2) – surface runoff iteration and WBt stage (3) – climate and land-use vulnerability parameters. as a result, GEO-CWB gives a wide range of seasonally and yearly gridded output layers as surface runoff, subsurface water, interception, evapotranspiration, soil evaporation, transpiration including total uncertainties or error in the water balance. GEO-CWB outputs could allow the scientific community, modelers, planners and decision makers to study the impact of climate and land-use changes on regional water resources vulnerability.