Towards earthquake early warning across Europe: Probabilistic quantification of available warning times and their risk-mitigation potential

Abstract

We explore the feasibility of implementing earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need to take effective measures for mitigating seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil protection authorities and/or the public), to the nucleation of an earthquake seconds/minutes before strong shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions can be taken to significantly decrease detrimental impacts. We investigate distributions of EEW warning times available across various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity models and seismic network density. We then determine the risk-reduction potential of these times, by defining their spatial relationship with exposure, event-dependent vulnerability, and an alert accuracy proxy, using well-established risk-prediction tools from earthquake engineering. The results are quantitative EEW feasibility maps, which can be used to understand how/if effective European EEW systems can be achieved.