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Abstract
China has enacted a series of policies since 2015 to substitute electricity for in-home combustion for rural residential heating. The Electric Heating Policy (EHP) has contributed to significant improvements in air quality, benefiting hundreds of millions of people. This shift, however, has resulted in a sharp increase in electric loads and associated carbon emissions. Here, we show that China’s EHP will greatly increase carbon emissions. We develop a theoretical model to quantify the carbon emissions from power generation and rural residential heating sectors. We found that in 2015, an additional 101.69–162.89 megatons of CO2 could potentially be emitted if EHP was implemented in 45–55% of rural residents in Northern China. In 2020, the incremental carbon emission is expected to reach 130.03–197.87 megatons. Fortunately, the growth of carbon emission will slow down due to China’s urbanization progress. In 2030, the carbon emission increase induced by EHP will drop to 119.19–177.47 megatons. Finally, we conclude two kinds of practical pathways toward low-carbon electric heating, and provide techno-economic analyses.
China has enacted Electric Heating Policy to substitute electricity for in-home combustion for rural residential heating. Here the authors show that this shift would greatly increase national carbon emissions by 101.69–162.89 megatons in 2015 while impeding China’s carbon mitigation process in the future.
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1 Tsinghua University, State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipment, Department of Electrical Engineering, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.12527.33) (ISNI:0000 0001 0662 3178); North China Electric Power University, State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.261049.8) (ISNI:0000 0004 0645 4572)
2 Tsinghua University, State Key Laboratory of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipment, Department of Electrical Engineering, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.12527.33) (ISNI:0000 0001 0662 3178)
3 Chongqing University, State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, College of Electrical Engineering, Chongqing, China (GRID:grid.190737.b) (ISNI:0000 0001 0154 0904)
4 University of California, Energy and Resources Group, and Goldman School of Public Policy, Berkeley, USA (GRID:grid.47840.3f) (ISNI:0000 0001 2181 7878)
5 Tsinghua University, Department of Earth System Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.12527.33) (ISNI:0000 0001 0662 3178)