How can we weather a virus storm? Health prediction inspired by meteorology could be the answer

Abstract

A big step forward occurred in the 1970s, when the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) promoted the adoption of standards in data collection and exchange, and it established the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) to co-ordinate data exchange. A similar model based on three interacting layers is envisaged for health predictions with National Health Services and International Health Institutions, including the proposed Health Prediction Center, working in a coordinated manner to improve the flow of standardized data and the exchange of health predictions (Fig. 1). In terms of performance measurement, parallelisms exists: for example, a metric developed to assess the quality of clinical trials, the Relative Operating Characteristic curve, has been adopted in weather prediction to assess the capability of a probabilistic forecast system to discriminate between the occurrence and non-occurrence of weather events. The case of weather has provided valuable insights, and a possible model to follow to build a structured, accessible, transparent and knowledge-based information and forecast system, which can be used to support health decisions