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© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

In the present paper, we test the benefit of using Markov-Switching models and volatility futures diversification in a Euro-based stock portfolio. With weekly data of the Eurostoxx 50 (ESTOXX50) stock index, we forecasted the smoothed regime-specific probabilities at T + 1 and used them as the weighting method of a diversified portfolio in ESTOXX50 and ESTOSS50 volatility index (VSTOXX) futures. With the estimated smoothed probabilities from 9 July 2009 to 29 September 2020, we simulated the performance of three theoretical investors who paid different trading costs and invested in ESTOXX50 during calm periods (low volatility regime) or VSTOXX futures and the three-month German treasury bills in distressed or highly distressed periods (high and extreme volatility regimes). Our results suggest that diversification benefits hold in the short-term, but if a given investor manages a two-asset portfolio with ESTOXX50 and our simulated portfolios, the stock portfolio’s performance is enhanced significantly, in the long term, with the presence of trading costs. These results are of use to practitioners for algorithmic and active trading applications in ESTOXX50 ETFs and VSTOXX futures.

Details

Title
A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance
Author
Oscar V De la Torre-Torres 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Galeana-Figueroa, Evaristo 1 ; Álvarez-García, José 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo (UMSNH), 58000 Morelia, Mexico; [email protected] 
 Financial Economy and Accounting Department, Faculty of Business, Finance and Tourism, University of Extremadura, 10071 Cáceres, Spain; [email protected] 
First page
1030
Publication year
2021
Publication date
2021
Publisher
MDPI AG
e-ISSN
22277390
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2530157091
Copyright
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.