The impacts of climate change on water resources in the Second Songhua River Basin, China

Abstract

The Northeast China Plain is one of the main grain growing regions in China. Due to the high latitude and black soil ecological system, the crop growth in there is vulnerable to climate change, which makes it important to evaluate the influences of climate change on water resources. In this study, the influences of climate change on water resources of a typical basin in northeast China, the Second Songhua River Basin were assessed using the SWAT model. Ensemble downscaled output from sixteen GCMs for A1B emission scenario in 2050s was adopted as the regional climate scenario and was used to drive SWAT model to predict hydrological changes. The prediction shows that mean evapotranspiration of whole basin increases in most time of a year. Stream flow of Fuyu gauging station downstream this basin exhibits a decrease trend from April to June, November and December, and increases in the remaining period of the year. It is indicated that water resources may not be sufficient in spring for irrigation and the possibility of flood in summer may increases, indicating countermeasures should be made to ensure agricultural water use and prevent possible damages of flood on crop.