Modeling Deforestation and Green Houses Gas Emissions in Morowali Utara District, Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

Abstract

Land use cover conversion from forest to another land was constributing for total green houses gas (GHS) emission, especially from forestry sector. The Central Sulawesi Province has forest area about 4.258 million ha. The deforestation in Central Sulawesi Province for period 2000-2009 reached 432,111.50 Ha (10.15 %). Morowali Utara District is one of district in Central Sulawesi Province, which contribution 15,20 % total deforestation in Central Sulawesi province. This study aims to calculate the rate of deforestation and simulation carbon emission in Morowali Utara District by using REDD⁺ model. The main data used in this study are land use or cover map (2003, 2009 and 2015), driver variable (distance from : forest edge, roads, streams, and slope) as the explanatory variables of deforestation. The results show that the deforestation on the period 2003-2015 reached 62,017.47 (9,19 %) or the rate of deforestation 5,168.12 ha year⁻¹. Logistic regression model for prediction of deforestation is Y₁ = −2.2649 + 0.001126 X₁ − 0.000152 X₂ − 0.000225 X₃ + 0.010704 X₄ (ROC = 0,7408), meanwhile the amount of carbon that the REDD project will protect given a departure from the business as usual deforestation scenario up to 18.868 million tCO₂e.