Risk-based forecasting methods of knowledge-intensive product life-cycle resource provision

Abstract

The paper is dedicated to the development of methods for predicting risk-based lifecycle resource provision in science-intensive projects. This method of whole-cycle prediction of changes in resource provision for science-intensive projects, which embraces risk factors, estimates appropriate real volumes of resource provision needed for engineering and producing science-intensive goods. It uses adaptive methods to estimate resource provision based on statistical data that is obtained at each phase of the project’s life cycle. The method enables prognosis of appropriate resource provision levels at different phases of the science-intensive project with consideration of risk factors. This method implies PC calculation. Minimal use of expert estimates is its crucial characteristic, as it enables automated computation.