Abstract

This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced peak surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-min maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~ 66% of the observed variance and ~ 74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk.

Details

Title
A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information
Author
Islam Md Rezuanul 1 ; Chia-Ying, Lee 2 ; Mandli, Kyle T 3 ; Takagi, Hiroshi 1 

 Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo, Japan (GRID:grid.32197.3e) (ISNI:0000 0001 2179 2105) 
 Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, USA (GRID:grid.21729.3f) (ISNI:0000000419368729) 
 Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Palisades, USA (GRID:grid.21729.3f) (ISNI:0000000419368729) 
Publication year
2021
Publication date
2021
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
e-ISSN
20452322
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2562363251
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2021. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.