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Abstract
This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced peak surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-min maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~ 66% of the observed variance and ~ 74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk.
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Details
1 Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo, Japan (GRID:grid.32197.3e) (ISNI:0000 0001 2179 2105)
2 Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, USA (GRID:grid.21729.3f) (ISNI:0000000419368729)
3 Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Palisades, USA (GRID:grid.21729.3f) (ISNI:0000000419368729)