Abstract

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

Forecasting models have been used extensively to inform decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this preregistered and prospective study, the authors evaluated 14 short-term models for Germany and Poland, finding considerable heterogeneity in predictions and highlighting the benefits of combined forecasts.

Details

Title
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave
Author
Bracher, J 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Wolffram, D 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Deuschel, J 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Görgen, K 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Ketterer, J L 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Ullrich, A 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Abbott, S 4 ; Barbarossa, M V 5 ; Bertsimas, D 6 ; Bhatia, S 7   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Bodych, M 8   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Bosse, N I 4   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Burgard, J P 9   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Castro, L 10   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Fairchild, G 10   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Fuhrmann, J 11 ; Funk, S 4   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Gogolewski, K 12   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Gu Q 13   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Heyder, S 14   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Hotz, T 14 ; Kheifetz, Y 15 ; Kirsten, H 15   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Krueger, T 8 ; Krymova, E 16   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Li, M L 17   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Meinke, J H 18   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Michaud, I J 19   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Niedzielewski, K 20   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Ożański, T 8   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Rakowski, F 20 ; Scholz, M 15   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Soni, S 6   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Srivastava, A 21   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Zieliński, J 20   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Zou, D 13 ; Gneiting, T 22 ; Schienle, M 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Li, Michael Lingzhi 17 ; Bertsimas Dimitris 6 ; Bouardi Hamza Tazi 6 ; Lami Omar Skali 6 ; Soni Saksham 6 ; Abbott, Sam 4 ; Bosse, Nikos I 4 ; Funk, Sebastian 4 ; Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria 5 ; Fuhrmann, Jan 11 ; Meinke, Jan H 18 ; Bracher, Johannes 1 ; Deuschel Jannik 2 ; Gneiting Tilmann 22 ; Görgen Konstantin 2 ; Ketterer Jakob 2 ; Schienle, Melanie 2 ; Ullrich, Alexander 3 ; Wolffram, Daniel 1 ; Górski Łukasz 20 ; Gruziel-Słomka Magdalena 20 ; Kaczorek Artur 20 ; Moszyński Antoni 20 ; Niedzielewski Karol 20 ; Nowosielski Jedrzej 20 ; Radwan Maciej 20 ; Rakowski Franciszek 20 ; Semeniuk Marcin 20 ; Zieliński Jakub 20 ; Bartczuk Rafał 23 ; Kisielewski, Jan 24 ; Bhatia Sangeeta 7 ; Biecek Przemyslaw 25 ; Bezborodov Viktor 8 ; Bodych Marcin 8 ; Krueger Tyll 8 ; Burgard, Jan Pablo 9 ; Heyder, Stefan 14 ; Hotz, Thomas 14 ; Osthus, Dave A 19 ; Michaud, Isaac J 19 ; Castro, Lauren 10 ; Fairchild, Geoffrey 10 ; Kheifetz Yuri 15 ; Kirsten, Holger 15 ; Scholz, Markus 15 ; Gambin, Anna 12 ; Gogolewski Krzysztof 12 ; Błażej, Miasojedow 12 ; Szczurek Ewa 12 ; Rabczenko, Daniel 26 ; Rosińska Magdalena 26 ; Bawiec Marek 8 ; Ożański Tomasz 8 ; Pabjan, Barbara 8 ; Ewaryst, Rafajłlowicz 8 ; Skubalska-Rafajłowicz Ewa 8 ; Rafajłowicz Wojciech 8 ; Migalska Agata 27 ; Flahault Antoine 28 ; Manetti, Elisa 28 ; Choirat, Christine 16 ; Haro Benjamin Bejar 16 ; Krymova Ekaterina 16 ; Lee, Gavin 16 ; Obozinski Guillaume 16 ; Sun, Tao 16 ; Thanou Dorina 29 ; Gu Quanquan 13 ; Pan, Xu 13 ; Chen, Jinghui 13 ; Wang, Lingxiao 13 ; Zou Difan 13 ; Zhang Weitong 13 ; Srivastava Ajitesh 30 ; Prasanna, Viktor K 30 ; Xu Frost Tianjian 30 

 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe, Germany (GRID:grid.7892.4) (ISNI:0000 0001 0075 5874); Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg, Germany (GRID:grid.424699.4) (ISNI:0000 0001 2275 2842) 
 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Chair of Statistics and Econometrics, Karlsruhe, Germany (GRID:grid.7892.4) (ISNI:0000 0001 0075 5874) 
 Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Berlin, Germany (GRID:grid.13652.33) (ISNI:0000 0001 0940 3744) 
 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (GRID:grid.8991.9) (ISNI:0000 0004 0425 469X) 
 Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Frankfurt, Germany (GRID:grid.417999.b) 
 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, USA (GRID:grid.116068.8) (ISNI:0000 0001 2341 2786) 
 Imperial College London, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), London, UK (GRID:grid.7445.2) (ISNI:0000 0001 2113 8111) 
 Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland (GRID:grid.7005.2) (ISNI:0000 0000 9805 3178) 
 University of Trier, Economic and Social Statistics Department, Trier, Germany (GRID:grid.12391.38) (ISNI:0000 0001 2289 1527) 
10  Los Alamos National Laboratory, Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos, USA (GRID:grid.148313.c) (ISNI:0000 0004 0428 3079) 
11  Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Frankfurt, Germany (GRID:grid.417999.b); Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Jülich, Germany (GRID:grid.8385.6) (ISNI:0000 0001 2297 375X) 
12  University of Warsaw, Institute of Informatics, Warsaw, Poland (GRID:grid.12847.38) (ISNI:0000 0004 1937 1290) 
13  University of California, Department of Computer Science, Los Angeles, USA (GRID:grid.19006.3e) (ISNI:0000 0000 9632 6718) 
14  Technische Universität Ilmenau, Institute of Mathematics, Ilmenau, Germany (GRID:grid.6553.5) (ISNI:0000 0001 1087 7453) 
15  University of Leipzig, Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, Leipzig, Germany (GRID:grid.9647.c) (ISNI:0000 0004 7669 9786) 
16  ETH Zurich and EPFL, Swiss Data Science Center, Lausanne, Switzerland (GRID:grid.5801.c) (ISNI:0000 0001 2156 2780) 
17  Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Center, Cambridge, USA (GRID:grid.116068.8) (ISNI:0000 0001 2341 2786) 
18  Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Jülich, Germany (GRID:grid.8385.6) (ISNI:0000 0001 2297 375X) 
19  Los Alamos National Laboratory, Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos, USA (GRID:grid.148313.c) (ISNI:0000 0004 0428 3079) 
20  University of Warsaw, Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, Warsaw, Poland (GRID:grid.12847.38) (ISNI:0000 0004 1937 1290) 
21  University of Southern California, Ming Hsieh Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, Los Angeles, USA (GRID:grid.42505.36) (ISNI:0000 0001 2156 6853) 
22  Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (HITS), Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg, Germany (GRID:grid.424699.4) (ISNI:0000 0001 2275 2842); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Stochastics, Karlsruhe, Germany (GRID:grid.7892.4) (ISNI:0000 0001 0075 5874) 
23  University of Warsaw, Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, Warsaw, Poland (GRID:grid.12847.38) (ISNI:0000 0004 1937 1290); John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Institute of Psychology, Lublin, Poland (GRID:grid.37179.3b) (ISNI:0000 0001 0664 8391) 
24  University of Warsaw, Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling, Warsaw, Poland (GRID:grid.12847.38) (ISNI:0000 0004 1937 1290); University of Białystok, Faculty of Physics, Białystok, Poland (GRID:grid.25588.32) (ISNI:0000 0004 0620 6106) 
25  Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland (GRID:grid.1035.7) (ISNI:0000000099214842) 
26  Polish National Institute of Public Health—National Institute of Hygiene, Wroclaw, Poland (GRID:grid.12847.38) 
27  Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland (GRID:grid.7005.2) (ISNI:0000 0000 9805 3178); Nokia Solutions and Networks, Wroclaw, Poland (GRID:grid.7005.2) 
28  University of Geneva, Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Geneva, Switzerland (GRID:grid.8591.5) (ISNI:0000 0001 2322 4988) 
29  EPFL, Center for Intelligent Systems, Lausanne, Switzerland (GRID:grid.5333.6) (ISNI:0000000121839049) 
30  University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA (GRID:grid.42505.36) (ISNI:0000 0001 2156 6853) 
Publication year
2021
Publication date
2021
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
e-ISSN
20411723
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2565277283
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2021. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.