Chaotic analysis and short-term prediction of ozone pollution in Malaysian urban area

Abstract

This study focuses on the analysis and prediction of hourly ozone (O₃) pollution in one of Malaysian urban area namely Shah Alam through chaotic approach. This approach begins by detecting the chaotic behavior of the O₃ pollution using phase space plot and Cao method. Then, the local mean approximation method is used for prediction purposes. The O₃ pollution observed at Shah Alam is detected as chaotic in behavior. Due to the chaotic behavior, only short-term prediction is allowed. Thus, the one-hour ahead prediction is done through the local mean approximation method. The prediction result shows that correlation coefficient value between the observed and predicted time series is near to one. This excellent prediction result shows in particular that the local mean approximation method can be used to predict the O₃ pollution in urban area. In general, chaotic approach is a useful approach that can be used to analyze and predict the O₃ pollution time series.