Environmental flow requirements largely reshape global surface water scarcity assessment

Abstract

The inclusion of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) in global water scarcity assessments is essential to obtain a reasonable representation of the water scarcity status. However, at a global scale, the quantification of EFRs is subject to large uncertainties resulting from various methods. So far, it is unclear to what extent the uncertainties in EFRs affect global water scarcity assessments. In this study, we examined the differences between EFR estimation methods and quantified their effects on spatially explicit water scarcity assessments, based on reconstructed global water withdrawal data and naturalized streamflow simulations. The global mean EFRs estimated by different methods ranged from 129 m³ s⁻¹ to 572 m³ s⁻¹. Consequently, with the fulfillment of the EFRs, the area under water scarcity ranged between 8% and 52% of the total global land area, and the affected population ranged between 28% and 60% of the total population. In India and Northern China, 44%–66% and 22%–58% of the country’s land area, respectively, is affected by water scarcity; this percentage is higher than that found in other countries. The effects of different EFRs on water scarcity assessment are large in many regions, but relatively small in regions that experience intensive water use due to anthropological activities (such as Northern China and India). Through this study, we have put forth the need for the reconciliation of the estimates of EFRs to produce more reasonable and consistent water scarcity assessments.