Ocean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise

Abstract

Regional sea-level changes are caused by several physical processes that vary both in space and time. As a result of these processes, large regional departures from the long-term rate of global mean sea-level rise can occur. Identifying and understanding these processes at particular locations is the first step toward generating reliable projections and assisting in improved decision making. Here we quantify to what degree contemporary ocean mass change, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion influence sea-level rise observed by tide-gauge locations around the contiguous U.S. from 1993 to 2018. We are able to explain tide gauge-observed relative sea-level trends at 47 of 55 sampled locations. Locations where we cannot explain observed trends are potentially indicative of shortcomings in our coastal sea-level observational network or estimates of uncertainty.

Tide gauge observations of relative sea-level trends between 1993 and 2018 around the contiguous United States can largely be attributed to a combination of changes in ocean mass, sterodynamic effects and vertical land motion, according to a sea-level budgeting exercise.