Managing Complexity in the Operational Integration of Complex Systems with Human Actors

Abstract

This work models the operational integration of complex systems that involve human actors and a variety of equipment. This advances the use of models later into the lifespan of systems, the operational integration of fielded equipment with each other. This expands, also, the use of humans in such models. This work attempts to parse out the impacts of various integration tools on the total integration of such complex systems so as to understand the trade off in resources including time to maximize the preparation of a set of crew-equipment sets for operational deployment. The impetus to the questions raised here is; what is the value of using simulations in human-equipment integration?

The study first explores all the integrated linkages that a crew-equipment set must establish. These are modelled through a Multi-Domain Architecture (MDA) Design Structure Matrix (DSM). This allows the model’s critical linkages to be defined using a subset of the larger matrix which becomes the area of interest where the requirements are understood and the impacts of the various integration tools can be measured for impact.

These sub-matrices are combined using a heuristic model of the integration. This additive model combines the impacts of each iteration of each tool using learning rates. These learning rates were defined using regression analysis of a dataset. Once these learning rates are defined the model is tested for predictive analysis of score. Strong correlation of the predicted and actual scores allows validation of the model.

Notably the requirements are proportioned based on a unique application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) using doctrinal literature in lieu of a panel of experts. This application allowed for perfectly consistent opinions.

After the model was built and verified, the information was evaluated against resources using a cost per point analysis of gunnery scores as a way to evaluate the efficiency of the approaches used by various subject crews.

This study suggests that models can be applied to operational integration and that strong potential exists to use such models to improve the operational integration of military elements. Further, the use of this model helps to define the costs and benefits of each integration tool to inform decisions about investments into tools. This domain has long been dominated by unstructured, localized, expert judgement but whose risks and total costs demand a stronger methodology.