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© 2022. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Both sea level variations and wind-generated waves affect coastal flooding risks. The correlation of these two phenomena complicates the estimates of their joint effect on the exceedance levels for the continuous water mass. In the northern Baltic Sea the seasonal occurrence of sea ice further influences the situation. We analysed this correlation with 28 years (1992–2019) of sea level data, and 4 years (2016–2019) of wave buoy measurements from a coastal location outside the City of Helsinki, Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The wave observations were complemented by 28 years of simulations with a parametric wave model. The sea levels and significant wave heights at this location show the strongest positive correlation (τ=0.5) for southwesterly winds, while for northeasterly winds the correlation is negative (-0.3). The results were qualitatively similar when only the open water period was considered, or when the ice season was included either with zero wave heights or hypothetical no-ice wave heights. We calculated the observed probability distribution of the sum of the sea level and the highest individual wave crest from the simultaneous time series. Compared to this, a probability distribution of the sum calculated by assuming that the two variables are independent underestimates the exceedance frequencies of high total water levels. We tested nine different copulas for their ability to account for the mutual dependence between the two variables.

Details

Title
Correlation of wind waves and sea level variations on the coast of the seasonally ice-covered Gulf of Finland
Author
Johansson, Milla M 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Jan-Victor Björkqvist 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Särkkä, Jani 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Leijala, Ulpu 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Kahma, Kimmo K 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101, Helsinki, Finland 
 Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway; Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Marine Systems, Tallinn University of Technology, Akadeemia tee 15a, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia 
Pages
813-829
Publication year
2022
Publication date
2022
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
ISSN
15618633
e-ISSN
16849981
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2637541784
Copyright
© 2022. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.