Abstract

Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to model pre-symptomatic disease progression during incubation period on which we were based to provide precision strategies for containing the resultant epidemic caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We then applied the proposed model to data on 1051 imported COVID-19 cases among inbound passengers to Taiwan between March 2020 and April 2021. The overall daily rate (per 100,000) of pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases was estimated as 106 (95% credible interval (CrI): 95–117) in March–June 2020, fell to 37 (95% CrI: 28–47) in July–September 2020 (p < 0.0001), resurged to 141 (95% CrI: 118–164) in October–December 2020 (p < 0.0001), and declined to 90 (95% CrI: 73–108) in January–April 2021 (p = 0.0004). Given the median dwelling time, over 82% cases would progress from pre-symptomatic to symptomatic phase in 5-day quarantine. The time required for quarantine given two real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests depends on the risk of departing countries, testing and quarantine strategies, and whether the passengers have vaccine jabs. Our proposed four-compartment stochastic process and computer simulation experiments design underpinning Bayesian MCMC algorithm facilitated the development of precision strategies for imported COVID-19 cases.

Details

Title
A pre-symptomatic incubation model for precision strategies of screening, quarantine, and isolation based on imported COVID-19 cases in Taiwan
Author
Hsiao-Hsuan, Jen Grace 1 ; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang 1 ; Chen-Yang, Hsu 2 ; Chen Sam Li-Sheng 1 ; Chen Tony Hsiu-Hsi 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 Taipei Medical University, School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan (GRID:grid.412896.0) (ISNI:0000 0000 9337 0481) 
 National Taiwan University, Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan (GRID:grid.19188.39) (ISNI:0000 0004 0546 0241); Dachung Hospital, Department of Emergency, Miaoli, Taiwan (GRID:grid.19188.39) 
 National Taiwan University, Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan (GRID:grid.19188.39) (ISNI:0000 0004 0546 0241) 
Publication year
2022
Publication date
2022
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
e-ISSN
20452322
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2649215778
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2022. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.