Introduction
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can lead to liver cirrhosis and death, but these conditions can be accelerated among individuals living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection [1]. Among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV infection, the global burden of HCV is estimated to be 6.3% [2]. In Europe, HCV prevalence is 8.7 times higher among MSM living with HIV compared to HIV-negative MSM [2]. Similar HCV burden has been observed among MSM living with HIV in Germany, with an estimated HCV prevalence of 8.8% [2]. MSM living with HIV in Germany are also estimated to be nearly 21 times more likely to be coinfected with HCV compared to HIV-negative MSM and 15 times more likely compared to the general population [2]. Between 1990 and 2014, increasing trends in HCV incidence were observed across Europe [3]. Despite high HCV treatment rates with interferon-based regimens, HCV incidence among MSM living with HIV in Germany increased prior to HCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs; [4]). Although MSM living with HIV and HCV were often initiated onto treatment with interferon-based regimens in the early phase of infection, cure rates with interferon-based regimens were insufficient and adverse events often limited treatment uptake [5]. Moreover, ongoing sexual risk-behavior and concomitant drug use (“Chemsex”) contributed to ongoing HCV transmission in MSM.
In 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) strategized global viral hepatitis elimination targets [6]. For HCV, these targets include an 80% reduction in HCV incidence and a 65% reduction in HCV-related mortality between 2015 and 2030 [6]. As current HCV DAAs can achieve >90% cure rates among individuals with HIV/HCV coinfection [7] with low side effect related discontinuation rates, treatment scale-up with DAAs offers a promising strategy to achieve the WHO elimination goals. However, Germany’s progress towards these goals needs to be monitored to ensure current approaches will achieve these elimination goals, as the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in widespread disruptions and the extent of their impact on HCV testing and treatment rates in Germany are still being examined. Especially, the impact of the pandemic on high-risk populations is unknown.
In 2019, a multicentric cohort on recently acquired HCV in MSM in Germany (NoCo) was established, using retrospective data since 2014, with plans to follow prospectively until 2022 to monitor the progress towards HCV microelimination among MSM. Using baseline retrospective data from this cohort, we developed a modeling framework to evaluate progress towards HCV elimination among MSM living with HIV in Germany and explored whether existing DAA treatment rates are sufficient to achieve the WHO HCV elimination incidence target by 2030. Further, we examined potential trajectories of progress towards HCV elimination due to disruptions in HCV treatment [8] and reductions in risk behavior between 2020 and 2021.
Methods
We adapted a previously published dynamic, deterministic model of HCV transmission, progression, and treatment among MSM living with diagnosed HIV to evaluate progress towards HCV elimination in Germany (S1 Fig; [9]). As we adapted a dynamic model, the risk of acquiring HCV was related to HCV prevalence and risk behavior. This model also included dynamic HCV transmission among MSM living with diagnosed HIV, fixed HCV incidence including infections acquired from HIV-undiagnosed or HIV-uninfected MSM outside of the MSM living with diagnosed HIV population. Individuals entered the model at the time of HIV diagnosis. A proportion had an existing HIV/HCV coinfection upon entry into the model. The model was stratified by HCV diagnosis status, HCV disease stage and treatment history, and high/low transmission risk. The high-risk group, characterized by the size of high-risk group and relative risk, was calibrated to epidemiological data for HCV primary infection and reinfection rates (Table 1). We assumed that the proportion of high-risk, MSM living with HIV remained stable but allowed for proportional mixing between groups and transitioning between risk groups. MSM living with HIV whose previous interferon-based therapies failed or became reinfected were eligible for retreatment. Given that there are no retreatment restrictions in Germany, MSM living with HIV in whom DAA treatment failed were also eligible to be retreated, at a rate equivalent to the primary treatment rates. All MSM living with HIV had a risk of mortality due to HIV and unrelated causes. An additional HCV-related mortality risk was included for MSM living with HIV coinfected with HCV.
[Figure omitted. See PDF.]
Model parameterization and calibration
The model was calibrated to and parameterized by historical epidemiological data on the HCV epidemic among MSM living with HIV in Germany (Table 1), using data from the HIV Seroconverter Cohort (a nationwide, multicenter prospective cohort study of 1,843 MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany between 1996 and 2012; [4]) and a German national cohort (NoCo) of patients from six HIV and hepatitis treatment sites (>8,000 MSM living with HIV between 2014 and 2020; [10]). In Germany, HCV incidence among MSM living with HIV increased from 1996–2012 (from ~0.5/100py to 2.8/100py; [4]), 8.2% seroprevalence among MSM living with HIV in 2012 [4], and stable HCV reinfection rates among MSM living with HIV in the pre-DAA and DAA era (6.82/100py from 2002–2014 and 7.33/100py from 2014–2018 [11]. Data from the NoCo study indicated that among MSM with a recently acquired HCV infection from 2014–2020, DAA treatment was initiated a median of 6 months after diagnosis in 81% (n = 148/182) of MSM who did not spontaneously clear their infection [10]. Additionally, 100% of MSM living with diagnosed HIV treated with DAAs achieved sustained viral response (SVR) [12].
The model was calibrated using an approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo scheme (ABC SMC) [13] for a resulting sample of 1,000 parameter sets (prior and posterior parameter ranges shown in S1 Table). To apply the ABC SMC methods, we sampled a set of parameters from a prior distribution, which was then used to generate a new dataset that is compared to observed data through a distance function. The final parameter set was a sample from the distribution, which given a small tolerance was a good approximation of the posterior distribution. A parameter set was considered acceptable when the distance or the log-likelihood, between the generated and observed data was less than the predetermined tolerance and resulted in the best approximation possible or was within the expected range for total number of MSM living with HIV in Germany in 2015 (48,000–58,000) [14], HCV primary incidence (1996–1999, 2000–2003, 2004–2007, and 2008–2012), HCV seroprevalence among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in 2012 (7.0–9.5%) [4] and HCV reinfection incidence among MSM living with diagnosed HIV (5.6–12.1/100 person-years across 2002–2014) [15].
In agreement with German guidelines, the model incorporated biannual testing with an 80% initiation onto treatment within 6 months following HCV diagnosis from 2002 [5]. As HCV treatment shifted from interferon-based to interferon-free DAA therapy following German regulatory approval in mid-2014, we modeled this shift in treatments beginning in 2015. As high treatment rates (55–83%) have been observed across Germany between 2007–2015 ([16]), we modeled high HCV testing and treatment rates among MSM living with HIV. Annual all-cause mortality among MSM living with diagnosed HIV varied over calendar time based on increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and earlier diagnosis (an estimated life expectancy increase of 20–40 years from assumed HIV diagnosis and ART initiation at age 35 years based on estimates from the UK, where age at HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy coverage are similar to estimates in Germany) [17]), and also included annual, excess HCV-related liver-related mortality rates [18, 19]. As the contribution to HCV incidence from HIV-undiagnosed or HIV-uninfected MSM among MSM living with HIV in Germany remains unknown, we assumed a similar contribution to that observed among HIV-uninfected MSM (0-2/1,000 person-years[py]; [20]). Posterior estimates for background HCV incidence from outside the MSM living with diagnosed HIV population was 0.6/1,000py (95% CI 0.2–1.0/1,000py). All simulations were performed using Matlab R2020b software.
Intervention scenarios
We modeled several scenarios including: (1) status quo, defined as no change in HCV treatment rates (80% of newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 6 months after diagnosis); (2) status quo, with all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 3 months; (3) treatment scale-up to 90% in 2021 for all newly diagnosed HCV infections within 6 months; (4) treatment scale-up to 100% in 2021 for all newly diagnosed HCV infections within 6 months; (5) treatment scale-up to 100% beginning in 2021 for all newly diagnosed HCV infections within 6 months along with 15% per year of previously diagnosed and untreated infections; (6) as in scenario 4, but with all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 3 months.
Potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic
While data collection on HCV incidence, testing, and treatment in the NoCo cohort is ongoing, we explored the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on service disruptions by modeling a 20% disruption to treatment in 2020 [8] for 12 months beginning in 2020. In addition to the 20% disruption to treatment, we modeled reductions in risk behavior by 25%, 50%, and 75% for 12 months between 2020 and 2021 [21–23].
Results
Model fit to data
The model fit well to HCV primary incidence, defined as the incidence of first HCV infection, over time (Fig 1A). However, the model slightly overestimated the HCV seroprevalence (antibody-positive or RNA-positive) among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in 2012 (Fig 1B).
[Figure omitted. See PDF.]
Model fit to calibration data for primary hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence (A) and HCV seroprevalence (antibody or RNA positive) (B) among men who have sex with men living with diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Germany. Diamonds represent mean epidemiological data estimate; whiskers, 95% confidence intervals; solid lines, the mean model trajectories; dashed lines, the 2.5% and 97.5% confidence percentiles of trajectories.
2021 HCV epidemic among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany
Based on model estimates, there are approximately 31,969 (95% CI 28,791–35,537) MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany in 2021. Among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany in 2021, overall HCV incidence is 3.1 per 100 person-years (95% CI 2.7–3.7/100py; S2 Fig) and primary HCV incidence is 2.3 per 100 person-years (95% CI 2.0–2.8/100py) (Fig 2). The model estimated HCV seroprevalence (antibody or RNA-positive) to be 21.1% (95% CI 19.1–23.4; S3 Fig) in 2021 and HCV chronic prevalence (RNA-positive) to be 7.8 (95% CI 6.8–9.0; S4 Fig), with a corresponding 5,170 (95% CI 4,475–5,960) MSM living with diagnosed HIV chronically infected with HCV.
[Figure omitted. See PDF.]
Diamonds represent mean epidemiological data estimate; whiskers, 95% confidence intervals; solid lines, the mean model trajectories. ‘Early’ refers to all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 3 months.
Impact of existing treatment
Existing annual treatment levels of ~80% within six months of diagnosis of MSM living with diagnosed HIV cannot achieve the WHO elimination target by 2030 (Fig 3). The current treatment strategy results in 7% relative reduction in total incidence by 2030 (95% CI -2.3–17.4). However, the current treatment strategy would have a stronger impact on primary HCV incidence resulting in a 26.6% (95% CI 17.7–34.7) incidence reduction between 2015–2030. Under this status quo, there would be no improvement in HCV seroprevalence (Ab or RNA-positive) or chronic HCV prevalence (RNA-positive) over time (S5 Fig). If treatment levels remained at status quo, but the time between diagnosis and treatment was halved (3 months vs 6 months), at best, an 16.8% total incidence reduction (95% CI 7.0–28.1) could be achieved by 2030. Further, primary incidence under this earlier diagnosis strategy would have a similar result as status quo, resulting in 33.2% reduction (95% CI 25.8–40.1). While HCV seroprevalence would not improve over time (mean increase: 69.5%, 95% CI 57.9–80.8), reducing the time between diagnosis and treatment to 3 months could lead to a 11.5% reduction (95% CI 1.7–23.0) in HCV chronic incidence between 2015–2030.
[Figure omitted. See PDF.]
Impact of treatment scale-up
Under the current time to treatment from diagnosis (6 months), scaling-up treatment to 90% or 100% per year is not sufficient to achieve the WHO incidence target of 80% reduction between 2015 and 2030 (90% treatment scale-up: 21.8% [95% CI 10.6–32.3]; 100% treatment scale-up: 47.1% [95% CI 35.9–56.6]). Treating all (100%) at diagnosis per year would result in 56.6% (95% CI 52.9–60.5) reduction in primary HCV incidence (vs 26.3% [95% CI 17.7–34.7%] in status quo treatment level and 37.4% [95% CI 33.0–41.1%] in 90% treatment scale-up). Under the treat all strategy would result in a 98% greater decrease in HCV chronic prevalence compared to the status quo treatment level (44.3% vs 0.7%; S5 Fig).
Strategies to achieve WHO HCV elimination incidence target
Modeling indicated that under the existing treatment program (~80% of MSM living with HIV per year), the WHO HCV elimination incidence target cannot be met (Fig 3). Further, a treatment level of 100% in combination with treating at least 15% of previously diagnoses and untreated MSM living with HIV (Scenario 5 and 6) is required to achieve an incidence reduction of 80% between 2015 and 2030. Scenario 5 and 6 resulted in the most dramatic decrease in incidence between 2015 and 2030 (Scenario 5: 80.2% [95% CI 75.8–83.8]; Scenario 6: 84.3% [95% CI 80.1–87.7]). These strategies would also result in substantial reductions in HCV primary incidence (Scenario 5: 82.6% [95% CI 80.6–84.4]; Scenario 6: 85.8% [95% CI 83.6–87.9]) and chronic prevalence (Scenario 5: 81.1% [95% CI 78.8–83.4]; Scenario 6: 84.5% [95% CI 82.5–86.4]).
Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HCV incidence target
Potential impacts of the HCV testing and treatment service disruptions on HCV total incidence is shown in Fig 4. All modeled disruptions resulted in increased HCV incidence between 2021 and 2030. Assuming treatment rates decreased by 20% beginning in 2020 but rebounded within 12 months to status quo levels, after a 12% relative increase in HCV incidence in 2020 to 2021, total HCV incidence would be 15% greater than expected under the status quo treatment regimen by 2030 (4.7/100py vs 4.0/100py). However, treatment disruptions at 20% for 12 months between 2020 and 2021 in addition to reductions in risk behaviors by 75%, would temporarily reduce incidence to 0.8/100py in 2021, but would quickly rebound surpassing expected HCV incidence under the status quo by 2023 (3.9/100py vs 3.7/100py). Less severe disruptions to risk behavior (25% and 50%) show similar results, with rapid reductions in incidence in 2020 but surpassing status quo incidence rates by 2022 and continuing to climb through 2030. Without further intervention or treatment scale-up, the HCV incidence goal would not be met.
[Figure omitted. See PDF.]
Discussion
This modeling study examines the current state of the HCV epidemic among MSM living with HIV in Germany and provides a baseline assessment to explore what treatment and combination scale-up strategies could achieve HCV microelimination among people with HIV by 2030. Our model projections show that further treatment scale-up is required to achieve the WHO incidence target among MSM living with HIV in Germany by 2030. Furthermore, treatment scaled-up to 100% at diagnosis and in the absence of treating previously HCV-diagnosed and untreated MSM living with HIV could not achieve the incidence reduction by 2030. However, reaching the HCV incidence elimination target is possible through the implementation of combination strategies which shorten the time between diagnosis and treatment and treat previously diagnosed and untreated. We note that retention in care strategies remain important in the HCV elimination era. Retention to HCV care appears high among MSM living with diagnosed HIV/HCV (with >80% of MSM living with HIV initiated onto HCV treatment). Further, timely diagnosis of HCV among MSM living with diagnosed HIV is facilitated by high retention in HIV care (>93% of PLHIV are on ART [24]). Nevertheless, a high proportion of individuals living with diagnosed HIV experience gaps in care (roughly 2/3 have experienced a gap, with a median time per gap of 223 days in Germany [25]). If MSM are infected during one of these gap periods, this could delay HCV diagnosis and treatment and be an obstacle to HCV elimination. This underscores the importance of exploring strategies which do not solely rely on treatment alone but may require programmatic changes which has also been explored in other settings in Europe such as the United Kingdom [26]. Our findings support early treatment for HCV under the current guidelines and that reimbursement of early treatment will be needed to support this approach. Further, disruptions in HCV screening and treatment during 2020 could delay progress towards these goals and must be examined to understand the extent to which these disruptions impacted HCV elimination efforts. The prospective monitoring of the NoCo cohort will provide subsequent data with which this model can be used to assess whether Germany is on track to reach the HCV incidence and mortality targets among people with HIV by 2030.
Comparisons with existing literature
Our study supports results from other HCV elimination modeling studies in the United Kingdom which showed that earlier access to DAA treatment and treatment for reinfection among MSM living with diagnosed HIV could lead to substantial reductions in both primary and total HCV incidence [26] and in the Netherlands which showed that universal access to DAA treatment and availability increased uptake and subsequently decreased HCV incidence among MSM living with HIV [27]. Further, in Switzerland where similar increases in HCV infection were observed among MSM living with HIV between 2002–2011 [28], reductions in both primary and total HCV incidence were reported from the Swiss HCVree trial which performed routine clinical evaluation every 3 to 6 months, annual HCV antibody screening, HCV PCR screening, DAA treatment and behavioral interventions and rescreening following intervention completion [29]. Our modeling results build on previous analyses among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Berlin, which found that a combination DAA scale-up with moderate behavioral interventions were required to achieve the HCV elimination incidence target by 2030 [30]. While our results support findings from other modeling studies in high-income settings with increasing HCV infections, our findings contrast with a modeling study in Australia among MSM living with HIV found that modest scale-up of DAAs is sufficient to achieve elimination [31]. However, this study assumed that risk behaviors would become stable and thus may not be extended to MSM living with HIV in other settings.
Limitations
Our study has several limitations. First, as with all modeling studies there is uncertainty in the parameterization and model projection. To account for this, we utilized approximate Bayesian calibration methods, which is a robust method to incorporate uncertainty within our model as well as variations in our model simulations.
Second, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV and HCV services, HCV elimination efforts, risk groups, and transmission is not fully understood at this time. While preliminary data from NoCo indicates that MSM living with diagnosed HIV attending HIV clinics in Germany, experienced near normal service delivery and care during the pandemic period, this only provides a snapshot into the services provided to MSM living with diagnosed HIV who access, attend, and receive care from these HIV and HCV clinics. It is to date unknown, to what extent the pandemic and/or its containment measures have impacted HCV testing or treatment rates. As HCV in MSM occurs in a setting of sexual risk behavior and drug use, it is further unknown, in which way these behavioral patterns may have been shifted during the pandemic.
Third, our assumptions on the proportion of high and low risk were based on pre-pandemic estimates. It is unclear whether the pandemic has increased or decreased risk behaviors among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany during this period though ongoing observational and clinical data collection will add to our understanding of these impacts over time. Among HIV-negative MSM in the UK, high rates of sexual activity, sexually transmitted infections, and increased challenges to accessing sexual health services were observed during the lockdown [32]. While reduced uptake of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was observed among MSM in Australia, this was accompanied by decreased rates of sexual activity contrary to observations in the UK [33]. Thus, it is unclear if similar trends could be assumed of MSM living with HIV and therefore were not reflected in our assumptions. However, using NoCo data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic era, we will probe these areas of uncertainty further using our modeling framework developed here.
Finally, our study explored treating 15% of previously diagnosed and untreated infections per year, based on expected feasibility. Though this was informed by data from the NoCo cohort of MSM living with HIV and HCV in Germany, further research could explore feasibility of treating more than 15% of previously diagnosed and untreated infections per year.
Applying the framework to understand COVID-19 screening and treatment disruptions
As this framework has been informed by the NoCo study, HCV incidence data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic is forthcoming and will be used to validate our COVID findings. Using this framework, we will further evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HCV elimination progress among MSM living with HIV in Germany by collecting prospective clinical, biological, and behavioral data to explain the success of the intervention uptake within the NoCo cohort.
Conclusions
Baseline HCV elimination progress shows that treatment and treatment scale-up alone is not sufficient to achieve the WHO incidence goal among HIV-diagnosed in Germany between 2015 and 2030. Other prevention strategies which decrease the time between diagnosis and treatment and explore treating individuals who were previously diagnosed but untreated are necessary. Finally, it is necessary to understand the impact and disruptions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic on testing and treatment uptake to appropriately evaluate the current progress towards HCV elimination among MSM living with HIV in Germany.
Supporting information
S1 Table. Prior and posterior ranges for parameters which were varied for model fitting.
HCV: hepatitis C virus; MSM: men who have sex with men; SVR: sustained virological response; IFN/RBV: Interferon/Ribavirin; UK: United Kingdom.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267853.s001
(DOCX)
S1 Fig. Adapted HCV transmission model schematic among MSM living with diagnosed HIV.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267853.s002
(TIF)
S2 Fig. Modeled epidemic trajectories of total HCV incidence (primary and reinfection) among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany.
Primary incidence is defined as the incidence of first HCV infection. ‘Early’ refers to all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 3 months.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267853.s003
(TIF)
S3 Fig. Modeled epidemic trajectories of HCV seroprevalence (antibody or RNA positive) among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany.
Data point is HCV seroprevalence estimate of 8.2% in 2012. ‘Early’ refers to all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 3 months.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267853.s004
(TIF)
S4 Fig. Modeled epidemic trajectories of HCV chronic prevalence (RNA positive) among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany.
‘Early’ refers to all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 3 months.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267853.s005
(TIF)
S5 Fig. Relative reductions in HCV seroprevalence and total HCV incidence among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany.
A). Relative reductions in total HCV incidence among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany between 2015–2030. B). Relative reductions in primary HCV incidence among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany between 2015–2030. C). Relative reductions in HCV chronic prevalence among MSM living with diagnosed HIV in Germany between 2015–2030. HCV chronic prevalence is defined as RNA+ only. HCV: hepatitis C; MSM: Men who have sex with men. Primary incidence is defined as the incidence of first HCV infection. ‘Early’ refers to all newly diagnosed HCV infections treated within 3 months.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267853.s006
(TIF)
Citation: Marquez LK, Ingiliz P, Boesecke C, Krznaric I, Schewe K, Lutz T, et al. (2022) Establishing a framework towards monitoring HCV microelimination among men who have sex with men living with HIV in Germany: A modeling analysis. PLoS ONE 17(5): e0267853. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267853
About the Authors:
Lara K. Marquez
Contributed equally to this work with: Lara K. Marquez, Patrick Ingiliz
Roles: Formal analysis, Methodology, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
E-mail: [email protected] (LKM); [email protected] (PI)
Affiliation: Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0386-2936
Patrick Ingiliz
Contributed equally to this work with: Lara K. Marquez, Patrick Ingiliz
Roles: Conceptualization, Data curation, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
E-mail: [email protected] (LKM); [email protected] (PI)
Affiliations Center for Infectiology, Berlin, Germany, Hepatology Department, Henri-Mondor Hospital, INSERM U955, Créteil, France
Christoph Boesecke
Roles: Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Ivanka Krznaric
Roles: Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Center for Infectiology, Berlin, Germany
Knud Schewe
Roles: Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: ICH-Studycenter, Hamburg, Germany
Thomas Lutz
Roles: Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Infektiologikum, Frankfurt, Germany
Stefan Mauss
Roles: Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Center for HIV and Hepatogastroenterology, Duesseldorf, Germany
Stefan Christensen
Roles: Writing – review & editing
Affiliations CIM Münster, Münster, Germany, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Muenster University Hospital, Muenster, Germany
Jürgen K. Rockstroh
Roles: Supervision, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Sonia Jain
Roles: Data curation, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
Feng He
Roles: Data curation, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
Joel O. Wertheim
Roles: Supervision, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
Natasha K. Martin
Roles: Conceptualization, Methodology, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing
Affiliation: Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
1. Thein H-H, Yi Q, Dore GJ, Krahn MD. Natural history of hepatitis C virus infection in HIV-infected individuals and the impact of HIV in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a meta-analysis. AIDS. 2008;22(15):1979–91. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0b013e32830e6d51 pmid:18784461
2. Jin F, Dore GJ, Matthews G, Luhmann N, Macdonald V, Bajis S, et al. Prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus infection in men who have sex with men: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2021;6(1):39–56. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-1253(20)30303-4 pmid:33217341
3. Van Santen DK, Van Der Helm JJ, Amo D. CASCADE Collaboration in EuroCoord. Lack of decline in hepatitis C virus incidence among HIV-positive men who have sex with men during 1990–2014. J Hepatol. 2017;67:255–62. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2017.03.038 pmid:28412290
4. Jansen K, Thamm M, Bock C-T, Scheufele R, Kücherer C, Muenstermann D, et al. High prevalence and high incidence of coinfection with hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and syphilis and low rate of effective vaccination against hepatitis B in HIV-positive men who have sex with men with known date of HIV seroconversion in Germany. PLoS One. 2015;10(11):e0142515. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142515 pmid:26555244
5. Steininger K, Boyd A, Dupke S, Krznaric I, Carganico A, Munteanu M, et al. HIV-positive men who have sex with men are at high risk of development of significant liver fibrosis after an episode of acute hepatitis C. J Viral Hepat. 2017;24(10):832–9. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/jvh.12707 pmid:28439936
6. World Health Organization. Global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis, 2016–2021. 2016. https://www.who.int/ hepatitis/strategy2016-2021/ghss-hep/en/ Accessed 30 July 2019.
7. Wyles DL, Sulkowski MS, Dieterich D. Management of hepatitis C/HIV coinfection in the era of highly effective hepatitis C virus direct-acting antiviral therapy: Table 1. Clin Infect Dis. 2016;63(suppl 1):S3–11. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciw219
8. Shakeri A, Konstantelos N, Chu C, Antoniou T, Feld J, Suda KJ, et al. Global utilization trends of direct acting antivirals (DAAs) during the COVID-19 pandemic: A time series analysis. Viruses [Internet]. 2021;13(7):1314. Available from: https://doi.org/10.3390/v13071314 pmid:34372520
9. Martin NK, Thornton A, Hickman M, Sabin C, Nelson M, Cooke GS, et al. Can hepatitis C virus (HCV) direct-acting antiviral treatment as prevention reverse the HCV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the United Kingdom? Epidemiological and modeling insights. Clin Infect Dis. 2016;62(9):1072–80. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciw07510 pmid:26908813
10. Ingiliz P, Martin NK, Lutz T, Schewe KC, Mauss S, Christensen S, et al. “No change in incidence of recently acquired HCV in HIV+ MSM in Germany (NOCO Cohort).” CROI Abstract 442. 2021
11. Ingiliz P, Wehmeyer MH, Boesecke C, Schulze Zur Wiesch J, Schewe K, Lutz T, et al. Reinfection with the hepatitis C virus in men who have sex with men after successful treatment with direct-acting antivirals in Germany: Current incidence rates, compared with rates during the interferon era. Clin Infect Dis. 2020;71(5):1248–54. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz949 pmid:31562816
12. Ingiliz P, Martin N, Lutz T, Schewe K, Mauss S, Christensen S, et al. No change in incidence of recently-acquired hepatitis C virus infection in men who have sex with men since the introduction of directly-acting antivirals in Germany (NoCo-Cohort). In: Program and abstracts of the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, Boston. International Antiviral Society- USA. 2020
13. Toni T, Welch D, Strelkowa N, Ipsen A, Stumpf MPH. Approximate Bayesian computation scheme for parameter inference and model selection in dynamical systems. J R Soc Interface. 2009;6(31):187–202. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2008.0172 pmid:19205079
14. Epidemiology report–Robert Koch Institute 2019. Accessed on 22 July 2021 from https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2019/Ausgaben/46_19.pdf?__blob=publicationFile#:~:text=%E2%96%B6%20Im%20Jahr%202018%20wurden,Infektion%20in%20Deutschland%20auf%2087.900.
15. Ingiliz P, Martin TC, Rodger A, Stellbrink H-J, Mauss S, Boesecke C, et al. HCV reinfection incidence and spontaneous clearance rates in HIV-positive men who have sex with men in Western Europe. J Hepatol. 2017;66(2):282–7. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2016.09.004 pmid:27650285
16. Boesecke C, Nelson M, Ingiliz P, Lutz T. Does the Availability of New DAAs Influence Treatment Uptake in Acute Hepatitis C in HIV Coinfection? CROI Conference, Abstract 670 2015.
17. UNAIDS 2018. Germany Country Data. Accessed on 10 July 2021 from https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/unaids-data-2018_en.pdf
18. van der Helm J, Geskus R, Sabin C, Meyer L, Del Amo J, Chêne G, et al. Effect of HCV infection on cause-specific mortality after HIV seroconversion, before and after 1997. Gastroenterology. 2013;144(4):751-760.e2. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1053/j.gastro.2012.12.026
19. Weber R, Sabin CA, Friis-Møller N, Reiss P, El-Sadr WM, Kirk O, et al. Liver-related deaths in persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus: the D:A:D study: The D:A:D study. Arch Intern Med. 2006;166(15):1632–41. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.166.15.1632 pmid:16908797
20. Yaphe S, Bozinoff N, Kyle R, Shivkumar S, Pai NP, Klein M. Incidence of acute hepatitis C virus infection among men who have sex with men with and without HIV infection: a systematic review. Sex Transm Infect. 2012;88(7):558–64. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2012-050566 pmid:22859499
21. Reyniers T, Rotsaert A, Thunissen E, Buffel V, Masquillier C, Van Landeghem E, et al. Reduced sexual contacts with non-steady partners and less PrEP use among MSM in Belgium during the first weeks of the COVID-19 lockdown: results of an online survey. Sex Transm Infect. 2021;97(6):414–9. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2020-054756 pmid:33172917
22. Gillespie D, Knapper C, Hughes D, Couzens Z, Wood F, de Bruin M, et al. Early impact of COVID-19 social distancing measures on reported sexual behaviour of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis users in Wales. Sex Transm Infect. 2021;97(2):85–7. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2020-054598 pmid:32967930
23. Hammoud MA, Maher L, Holt M, Degenhardt L, Jin F, Murphy D, et al. Physical distancing due to COVID-19 disrupts sexual behaviors among gay and bisexual men in Australia: Implications for trends in HIV and other sexually transmissible infections: Implications for trends in HIV and other sexually transmissible infections. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2020;85(3):309–15. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1097/qai.0000000000002462 pmid:32740374
24. an der Heiden M, Marcus U, Kollan C, Schmidt D, Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer B, Bremer V. Schätzung der Zahl der HIV-Neuinfektionen und der Gesamtzahl von Menschen mit HIV in Deutschland, Stand Ende 2018. Epidemiologisches Bulletin. 2019;(46):483–92.
25. Schmidt D, Kollan C, Stoll M, Hamouda O, Bremer V, Kurth T, et al. Everything counts—a method to determine viral suppression among people living with HIV using longitudinal data for the HIV care continuum—results of two large, German, multi-center real-life cohort studies over 20 years (1999–2018). BMC Public Health 21, 200 (2021). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-10088-7 pmid:33482773
26. Garvey LJ, Cooke GS, Smith C, Stingone C, Ghosh I, Dakshina S, et al. Decline in hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence in men who have sex with men living with human immunodeficiency virus: Progress to HCV microelimination in the United Kingdom? Clin Infect Dis. 2021;72(2):233–8. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa021 pmid:32211763
27. Boerekamps A, van den Berk GE, Lauw FN, Leyten EM, van Kasteren ME, van Eeden A, et al. Declining hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence in Dutch human immunodeficiency virus-positive men who have sex with men after unrestricted access to HCV therapy. Clin Infect Dis. 2018;66(9):1360–5. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/cix1007 pmid:29186320
28. Wandeler G, Gsponer T, Bregenzer A, Günthard HF, Clerc O, Calmy A, et al. Hepatitis C virus infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: a rapidly evolving epidemic. Clin Infect Dis. 2012;55(10):1408–16. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/cis694 pmid:22893583
29. Mascolini M. New HCV Diagnoses Down by Two Thirds in HIV+ Swiss MSM 2010–2020. 18th European AIDS Conference Abstract, EACS 2021 Abstract.
30. Martin NK, Jansen K, An der Heiden M, Boesecke C, Boyd A, Schewe K, et al. Eliminating hepatitis C virus among human immunodeficiency virus-infected men who have sex with men in Berlin: A modeling analysis. J Infect Dis. 2019;220(10):1635–44. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiz367 pmid:31301142
31. Scott N, Stoové M, Wilson DP, Keiser O, El-Hayek C, Doyle J, et al. Eliminating hepatitis C virus as a public health threat among HIV-positive men who have sex with men: a multi-modelling approach to understand differences in sexual risk behaviour. J Int AIDS Soc. 2018;21(1):e25059. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/jia2.25059 pmid:29314670
32. Hyndman I, Nugent D, Whitlock GG, McOwan A, Girometti N. COVID-19 restrictions and changing sexual behaviours in HIV-negative MSM at high risk of HIV infection in London, UK. Sex Transm Infect. 2021;97(7):521–4. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1136/sextrans-2020-054768 pmid:33462118
33. Hammoud MA, Grulich A, Holt M, Maher L, Murphy D, Jin F, et al. Substantial decline in use of HIV preexposure prophylaxis following introduction of COVID-19 physical distancing restrictions in Australia: Results from a prospective observational study of gay and bisexual men: Results from a prospective observational study of gay and bisexual men. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2021;86(1):22–30. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000002514 pmid:33027151
34. van de Laar T, Pybus O, Bruisten S, Brown D, Nelson M, Bhagani S, et al. Evidence of a large, international network of HCV transmission in HIV-positive men who have sex with men. Gastroenterology. 2009;136(5):1609–17. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1053/j.gastro.2009.02.006 pmid:19422083
35. Graf C, Lutz T, Knecht G, Stephan C, Gute P, Peiffer KH, et al. Acute hepatitis C virus infection: A prospective ten years observational study of HCV-mono- and HCV/HIV-coinfected patients”EASL 2020 Abstract. https://www.natap.org/2020/EASL/EASL_12.htm
36. Boesecke C, Schewe K, Lutz T, Mauss S, Christensen S, Jain S, et al. “Reinfection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Germany–Results from the German NoCo cohort.” CROI Abstract. 2020
37. Robert Koch-Institut. Schätzung der Prävalenz und Inzidenz von HIV-Infektionen in Deutschland, Stand Ende 2014. Epidemiologisches Bulletin 2015;45(2015). Accessed on 15 July 2021 from https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2015/Ausgaben/45_15.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
38. Thomson EC, Fleming VM, Main J, Klenerman P, Weber J, Eliahoo J, et al. Predicting spontaneous clearance of acute hepatitis C virus in a large cohort of HIV-1-infected men. Gut. 2011;60(6):837–45. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1136/gut.2010.217166 pmid:21139063
39. Piroth L, Larsen C, Binquet C, Alric L, Auperin I, Chaix M-L, et al. Treatment of acute hepatitis C in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients: the HEPAIG study. Hepatology. 2010;52(6):1915–21. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/hep.23959 pmid:21064156
40. Boesecke C, Ingiliz P, Reiberger T, Stellbrink H-J, Bhagani S, Page E, et al. Dual treatment of acute HCV infection in HIV co-infection: influence of HCV genotype upon treatment outcome. Infection. 2016;44(1):93–101. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1007/s15010-015-0856-9 pmid:26481253
41. Davies A, Singh KP, Shubber Z, Ducros P, Mills EJ, Cooke G, et al. Treatment outcomes of treatment-naïve Hepatitis C patients co-infected with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational cohorts. PLoS One. 2013;8(2):e55373. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0055373 pmid:23393570
42. Yin Z, Brown A, Hughes G, Nardone A, Gill O, Delpech V. HIV in the United Kingdom: 2014 Report: data to end 2013. Public Health England, London, 2014.
43. Public Health England. Trends in HIV testing, new diagnoses and people receiving HIV-related care in the UK: data to end December 2019. Health Protection Report, Vol 14 No 20. 2020. Accessed on 15 July 2021 from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/931964/hpr2020_hiv19.pdf
44. Public Health England. HIV in the United Kingdom: Towards Zero HIV transmissions by 2030 (2019 report–data to end 2018). 2019. Accessed on 30 June 2021 from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/858559/HIV_in_the_UK_2019_towards_zero_HIV_transmissions_by_2030.pdf
45. May M, Gompels M, Delpech V, Porter K, Post F, Johnson M, et al. Impact of late diagnosis and treatment on life expectancy in people with HIV-1: UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study. BMJ. 2011;343(oct11 2):d6016. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.d6016 pmid:21990260
46. Nakagawa F, Lodwick RK, Smith CJ, Smith R, Cambiano V, Lundgren JD, et al. Projected life expectancy of people with HIV according to timing of diagnosis. AIDS. 2012;26(3):335–43. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0b013e32834dcec9 pmid:22089374
47. May MT, Gompels M, Delpech V, Porter K, Orkin C, Kegg S, et al. Impact on life expectancy of HIV-1 positive individuals of CD4+ cell count and viral load response to antiretroviral therapy. AIDS. 2014;28(8):1193–202. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000000243 pmid:24556869
48. Schmidt AJ, Bourne A, Weatherburn P, Reid D, Marcus U, Hickson F, et al. Illicit drug use among gay and bisexual men in 44 cities: Findings from the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS). Int J Drug Policy. 2016;38:4–12. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2016.09.007 pmid:27788450
49. Esser S, Krotzek J, Dirks H, Scherbaum N, Schadendorf D. Sexual risk behavior, sexually transmitted infections, and HIV transmission risks in HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM)—approaches for medical prevention: Targeted medical prevention work in HIV-positive MSM. J Dtsch Dermatol Ges. 2017;15(4):421–8. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/ddg.13217
50. Fierer D, Factor S, Uriel A, Mullen M, Klepper A, van Seggelen W, et al. Sexual Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus Among HIV-infected Men Who Have Sex with Men—New York City 2005–2010. Morbidity and Mortaility Weekly Report 2011;60:945–950.
51. Danta M, Brown D, Bhagani S, Pybus OG, Sabin CA, Nelson M, et al. Recent epidemic of acute hepatitis C virus in HIV-positive men who have sex with men linked to high-risk sexual behaviours. AIDS. 2007;21(8):983–91. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0b013e3281053a0c pmid:17457092
You have requested "on-the-fly" machine translation of selected content from our databases. This functionality is provided solely for your convenience and is in no way intended to replace human translation. Show full disclaimer
Neither ProQuest nor its licensors make any representations or warranties with respect to the translations. The translations are automatically generated "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE" and are not retained in our systems. PROQUEST AND ITS LICENSORS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTIES FOR AVAILABILITY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, NON-INFRINGMENT, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. Your use of the translations is subject to all use restrictions contained in your Electronic Products License Agreement and by using the translation functionality you agree to forgo any and all claims against ProQuest or its licensors for your use of the translation functionality and any output derived there from. Hide full disclaimer
© 2022 Marquez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Abstract
Background
Prior to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), HCV incidence rose among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV infection in Germany despite high hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment rates. We establish a HCV elimination modeling framework to evaluate whether existing treatment rates can achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) incidence target among MSM living with HIV in Germany.
Methods
To evaluate progress towards HCV elimination in Germany, we adapted a previously published HCV transmission model among MSM living with diagnosed HIV. We modelled HCV incidence and prevalence until 2030 (relative to 2015) under existing treatment and DAA scale-up and explored potential impacts of disruptions in treatment and behavioral risk reduction due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Results
Continuing current treatment rates will result in stable HCV incidence among MSM living with HIV in Germany between 2015–2030. The WHO HCV incidence target is achievable under DAA scale-up to 100% treatment combined with treatment of those previously diagnosed and untreated (at a rate of 15%/year) and would result in greater reductions with early treatment (3 vs 6 months) reducing incidence from 4.0/100person-years to 0.8/100person-years by 2030. A 12-month disruption to HCV treatment (20% reduction) and risk behaviors (25%,50%,75% reduction) during the COVID-19 pandemic would result in a 15% relative increase in total HCV incidence in 2030 compared to that expected under the status quo.
Conclusions
HCV elimination among MSM living with HIV in Germany requires further DAA scale-up among those newly diagnosed combined with efforts to treat those previously diagnosed but untreated. Prospective monitoring will establish whether Germany is on track for HCV microelimination.
You have requested "on-the-fly" machine translation of selected content from our databases. This functionality is provided solely for your convenience and is in no way intended to replace human translation. Show full disclaimer
Neither ProQuest nor its licensors make any representations or warranties with respect to the translations. The translations are automatically generated "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE" and are not retained in our systems. PROQUEST AND ITS LICENSORS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTIES FOR AVAILABILITY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, NON-INFRINGMENT, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. Your use of the translations is subject to all use restrictions contained in your Electronic Products License Agreement and by using the translation functionality you agree to forgo any and all claims against ProQuest or its licensors for your use of the translation functionality and any output derived there from. Hide full disclaimer