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© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Trends in streamflow, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) time series, from 1970 to 2017, were assessed for five important hydrological basins in Southeastern Brazil. The concept of elasticity was also used to assess the streamflow sensitivity to changes in climate variables, for annual data and 5-, 10- and 20-year moving averages. Significant negative trends in streamflow and rainfall and significant increasing trend in PET were detected. For annual analysis, elasticity revealed that 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.21–2.19% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced different reductions percentages in streamflow, ranging from 2.45% to 9.67%. When both PET and rainfall were computed to calculate the elasticity, results were positive for some basins. Elasticity analysis considering 20-year moving averages revealed that impacts on the streamflow were cumulative: 1% decrease in rainfall resulted in 1.83–4.75% decrease in streamflow, while 1% increase in PET induced 3.47–28.3% decrease in streamflow. This different temporal response may be associated with the hydrological memory of the basins. Streamflow appears to be more sensitive in less rainy basins. This study provides useful information to support strategic government decisions, especially when the security of water resources and drought mitigation are considered in face of climate change.

Details

Title
Trends and Climate Elasticity of Streamflow in South-Eastern Brazil Basins
Author
Deusdará-Leal, Karinne 1 ; Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna 2   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Luz Adriana Cuartas 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Seluchi, Marcelo E 3 ; Marengo, Jose A 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Zhang, Rong 4 ; Broedel, Elisangela 3 ; Diogo de Jesus Amore 3 ; Alvalá, Regina C S 3 ; Ana Paula M A Cunha 3   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Gonçalves, José A C 1 

 Institute of Applied and Pure Sciences, Federal University of Itajubá(UNIFEI), Itabira 35903-087, Brazil; [email protected] 
 Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany; [email protected] 
 National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil; [email protected] (L.A.C.); [email protected] (M.E.S.); [email protected] (J.A.M.); [email protected] (E.B.); [email protected] (D.d.J.A.); [email protected] (R.C.S.A.); [email protected] (A.P.M.A.C.) 
 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute (NHRI), Nanjing 210029, China; [email protected] 
First page
2245
Publication year
2022
Publication date
2022
Publisher
MDPI AG
e-ISSN
20734441
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2694034939
Copyright
© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.