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Abstract
Doctoral student attrition poses a significant challenge in higher education, particularly in Namibia, where non-completion rates undermine academic progress, institutional goals and national development agendas. Through the lens of Tinto's theory of student integration, this article examines the implications of doctoral attrition for individual students and the broader Namibian society, while exploring coping strategies employed by students to navigate academic challenges. Globally, research highlights a concerning trend, with nearly half of doctoral candidates across higher education systems failing to attain their degrees. This article adopts a qualitative approach grounded in an interpretivist framework to explore this phenomenon. Data collection involved semi-structured interviews with 23 doctoral candidates registered at two Namibian universities between 2013 and 2019. Thematic analysis revealed multiple consequences linked to prolonged doctoral study timelines or premature withdrawal, alongside resilience strategies participants utilised to mitigate academic and institutional barriers. Findings reveal that attrition detrimentally affects students' career prospects, financial stability and psychological wellbeing, hindering national human capital development, innovation, and economic growth. Conversely, adaptive coping strategies such as peer support networks, mentorship, institutional resources and personal resilience emerged as critical enablers of persistence. The article contributes to global discourse on doctoral education while offering actionable recommendations to policymakers and universities aiming to foster student success and national advancement.
Keywords: doctoral attrition, completion rate, higher education, coping strategies
1. Introduction and background
The expansion of doctoral education has been notable in the late 20th century, coinciding with the massification of higher education and the emergence of the global knowledge economy (Grant et al., 2022, as cited in Nerad et al., 2022). Even so, a considerable body of existing literature on doctoral studies indicates that a substantial number of doctoral candidates encounter difficulties in completing their studies and ultimately withdraw from the program before obtaining their degrees (Cakmak, 2015; Caruth, 2015; Shariff et al., 2015; Beck, 2016). Several studies have depicted the pursuit of a doctoral degree as characterised by high levels of stress and uncertainty for students, as well as subject to alarming rates of attrition, with an estimated 50% of doctoral students discontinuing their studies (Litalien, 2015; Rigler et al., 2017; Laufer & Gorup, 2019).
This article empirically demonstrates that heightened doctoral attrition rates disrupt scholars' educational pathways and negatively affect societal...