The role of natural gas in reaching net-zero emissions in the electric sector

Abstract

Replacing coal with natural gas has contributed to recent emissions reductions in the electric sector, but there are questions about the near- and long-term roles for gas under deep decarbonization. In this study, we assess the potential role for natural gas and carbon removal in deeply decarbonized electricity systems in the U.S. and evaluate the robustness of these insights to key technology and policy assumptions. We find that natural-gas-fired generation can lower the cost of electric sector decarbonization, a result that is robust to a range of sensitivities, when carbon removal is allowed under policy. Accelerating decarbonization to reach net-zero in 2035 entails greater contributions from natural gas than in 2050. Nonetheless, wind and solar have higher generation shares than natural gas for most regions and scenarios (52-66% variable renewables for net-zero scenarios versus 0-19% for gas), suggesting that natural gas generation can be substituted more easily than its capacity.

Natural gas and carbon removal can play roles in reaching net-zero emissions in the U.S. electric sector and can lower decarbonization costs, though wind and solar have higher generation shares for most regions and scenarios.