Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change

Abstract

The Heat Index is a metric that quantifies heat exposure in human beings. Here, using probabilistic emission projections, we show that changes in the Heat Index driven by anthropogenic CO₂ emissions will increase global exposure to dangerous environments in the coming decades. Even if the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C is met, the exposure to dangerous Heat Index levels will likely increase by 50–100% across much of the tropics and increase by a factor of 3–10 in many regions throughout the midlatitudes. Without emissions reductions more aggressive than those considered possible by our statistical projection, it is likely that by 2100, many people living in tropical regions will be exposed to dangerously high Heat Index values during most days of each typical year, and that the kinds of deadly heat waves that have been rarities in the midlatitudes will become annual occurrences.

Exposure to dangerous heat index levels will likely increase by 50-100% in the tropics and by a factor of 3-10 in the mid-latitudes by 2100, even if the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 2°C is met, according to probabilistic projections of global warming.